Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Sat, Aug 15, 2026
VS
04:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Utrecht host AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Utrecht at 1.38 goals for, 1.25 against; AZ Alkmaar at 2 for, 1.38 against. Past meetings favor Utrecht slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 1, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.63) point toward AZ Alkmaar. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Utrecht
15%
Draws
53%
AZ Alkmaar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AZ Alkmaar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to AZ Alkmaar lately — more wins on the board than Utrecht.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Utrecht Clean Sheet 14%
AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Utrecht AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 12 16
Draws 3 9
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.38 2
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
4:1
Jan 18, 2025 Eredivisie
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar
0:0
Sep 29, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
1:2
May 19, 2024 Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar vs Utrecht
3:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Utrecht 31 / 100
AZ Alkmaar 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Utrecht AZ Alkmaar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Utrecht scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

AZ Alkmaar has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Solid form: Utrecht remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Utrecht VS AZ Alkmaar
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Utrecht

(Home)
24 Jul
Cambuur
0 : 1
Utrecht
24 Jul
Cambuur
1 : 0
Utrecht
17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2
V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Jul
Utrecht
0 : 1
Apollon Limassol
27 Jun
Utrecht
1 : 2
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

AZ Alkmaar

(Away)
25 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
3 : 2
Olympiacos Piraeus
22 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
4 : 0
Genk
18 Jul
Waregem
1 : 1
AZ Alkmaar
15 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
0 : 1
Anderlecht
11 Jul
AZ Alkmaar
2 : 1
Almere City
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cambuur 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Sittard 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Telstar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Zwolle 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
5 PSV 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
6 Ajax 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
7 Twente 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
8 Heerenveen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
9 Feyenoord 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
10 Nijmegen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
11 Utrecht 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
12 AZ Alkmaar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
13 Sparta Rotterdam 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
14 Willem II 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
15 Excelsior 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Den Haag 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
17 G.A. Eagles 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
18 Groningen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie 2027/2028 (Main)