Sport Picks

Japan

J1 League 2026 Peace Stadium, Nagasaki

V-Varen Nagasaki

1 - 0

Avispa Fukuoka

Our Tip

Match Events

46'

Sub

Yuzawa M. In: Hashimoto Y.

Out: Yuzawa M.

62'

Sub

Onaga H. In: Iwasaki Y.

Out: Onaga H.

62'

Sub

Yoneda S. In: Kasayanagi T.

Out: Yoneda S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

V-Varen Nagasaki in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored V-Varen Nagasaki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%

V-Varen Nagasaki

20%

Draws

38%

Avispa Fukuoka

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to V-Varen Nagasaki lately — more wins on the board than Avispa Fukuoka.
V-Varen Nagasaki are the model's pick here, at 42%.
Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 38%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%

V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%

Avispa Fukuoka Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	V-Varen Nagasaki	Avispa Fukuoka
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	14	13
Draws	2	4
Losses	14	13
Goals Scored	1.5	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 J1 League

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

1:0

Mar 15, 2026 J1 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka

1:0

Jul 13, 2022 Emperors Cup

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

2:0

Sep 27, 2020 J2 League

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Avispa Fukuoka

1:3

Jul 4, 2020 J2 League

Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki

1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

V-Varen Nagasaki 42 / 100

Avispa Fukuoka 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

V-Varen Nagasaki Avispa Fukuoka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Avispa Fukuoka let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

V-Varen Nagasaki's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

V-Varen Nagasaki went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

V-Varen Nagasaki VS Avispa Fukuoka

1.5 Goals Scored 1.5

1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63

75% Over 1.5 88%

75% Over 2.5 88%

25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

V-Varen Nagasaki

(Home)

17 Jul

Utrecht

3 : 2

V-Varen Nagasaki

14 Jul

Nijmegen

3 : 1

V-Varen Nagasaki

06 Jun

Mito

0 : 1

V-Varen Nagasaki

30 May

V-Varen Nagasaki

1 : 0

Mito

23 May

Kyoto

1 : 0

V-Varen Nagasaki

Page 1 of 6

Avispa Fukuoka

(Away)

19 Jul

Avispa Fukuoka

3 : 2

FC Osaka

11 Jul

Avispa Fukuoka

1 : 2

Giravanz Kitakyushu

06 Jun

Chiba

1 : 2

Avispa Fukuoka

30 May

Avispa Fukuoka

2 : 2

Chiba

23 May

Avispa Fukuoka

0 : 1

Vissel Kobe

Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	18	15	3	31:11	45
2	FC Tokyo	18	13	5	32:18	37
3	Machida Zelvia	18	13	5	28:22	37
4	Kawasaki Frontale	18	10	8	26:28	28
5	Verdy	18	10	8	22:26	28
6	Urawa Reds	18	7	11	25:22	25
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	18	6	12	28:31	20
8	Kashiwa Reysol	18	7	11	22:24	20
9	Mito	18	6	12	23:39	18
10	Chiba	18	3	15	18:34	12

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League Standings (Group 2)

Scroll horizontally →

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	11	7	29:25	35
2	Cerezo Osaka	18	11	7	30:21	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	10	8	33:31	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	10	8	31:23	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	10	8	31:25	28
6	Okayama	18	8	10	26:29	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	8	10	23:25	24
8	Kyoto	18	8	10	22:28	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	7	11	21:29	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	7	11	21:31	21

Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)

Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)