Sport Picks
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
Japan
J1 League 2026 Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 
Match Events
5'
5'
Thiago
27'
27'
Sub
Thiago In: Yamasaki R.
Out: Thiago
35'
35'
Yoon S.
AI Match Summary
Kyoto in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kyoto.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- V-Varen Nagasaki have won more games recently than Kyoto.
- Win probability leans V-Varen Nagasaki's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 68%
Kyoto Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | V-Varen Nagasaki | Kyoto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 14 | 13 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 14 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 2.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 23, 2026 J1 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:0
Mar 18, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
1:2
Oct 2, 2021 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto
2:0
Jul 3, 2021 J2 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
0:2
Dec 2, 2020 J2 League
Kyoto vs V-Varen Nagasaki
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Top Goalscorer Thiago
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Kyoto Compare
Top Goalscorer Okugawa M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Henrique Trevisan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
V-Varen Nagasaki 95 / 100
Kyoto 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
V-Varen Nagasaki Kyoto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick VVA Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Kyoto has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Attacking prowess: V-Varen Nagasaki scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Away concern: Kyoto has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
V-Varen Nagasaki VS Kyoto
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Home) 17 Jul
Utrecht
3 : 2 V-Varen Nagasaki
14 Jul
Nijmegen
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Jun
Mito
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0 Mito
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 6
30 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 0 Mito
17 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
3 : 2 Vissel Kobe
06 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 1 Okayama
03 May
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 2 Nagoya Grampus
25 Apr
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 2 Gamba Osaka
Page 1 of 3
Kyoto
(Away) 17 Jul
Kyoto
1 : 4 Shonan Bellmare
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1 Kyoto
30 May
Kyoto
2 : 6 Kashiwa Reysol
23 May
Kyoto
1 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
17 May
Kyoto
0 : 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Page 1 of 6
06 Jun
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 1 Kyoto
13 May
Vissel Kobe
1 : 0 Kyoto
10 May
Nagoya Grampus
3 : 0 Kyoto
06 May
Avispa Fukuoka
2 : 1 Kyoto
18 Apr
Cerezo Osaka
3 : 0 Kyoto
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31:11 | 45 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 18 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28:22 | 37 |
| 4 | Kawasaki Frontale | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 26:28 | 28 |
| 5 | Verdy | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 22:26 | 28 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 25:22 | 25 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28:31 | 20 |
| 8 | Kashiwa Reysol | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 22:24 | 20 |
| 9 | Mito | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 23:39 | 18 |
| 10 | Chiba | 18 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 18:34 | 12 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 29:25 | 35 |
| 2 | Cerezo Osaka | 18 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 30:21 | 31 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 33:31 | 31 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:23 | 30 |
| 5 | Gamba Osaka | 18 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 31:25 | 28 |
| 6 | Okayama | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 26:29 | 26 |
| 7 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 23:25 | 24 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 18 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 22:28 | 23 |
| 9 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:29 | 21 |
| 10 | Avispa Fukuoka | 18 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 21:31 | 21 |
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League 2026 (Placement Play Offs)
