Sport Picks
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Peace Stadium, Nagasaki 
Match Events
36'
36'
Matheus Jesus
(Penalty)
57'
57'
Thiago
Assist: Hasegawa M.
61'
61'
Sub
Yamagishi Y. In: Koyamatsu T.
Out: Yamagishi Y.
AI Match Summary
V-Varen Nagasaki in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored V-Varen Nagasaki.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
20%
30%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: V-Varen Nagasaki
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
20%
/ Low Confidence
- Nagoya Grampus average 1.44 goals a game right now, well clear of V-Varen Nagasaki's 1.17.
- Model gives V-Varen Nagasaki a 42% chance of winning this.
- Regular J1 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and V-Varen Nagasaki have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 20%
Nagoya Grampus Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | V-Varen Nagasaki | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 16 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.17 | 1.44 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 1.85 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
2:0
May 3, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
1:2
Feb 21, 2026 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:3
Sep 15, 2018 J1 League
Nagoya Grampus vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:4
May 12, 2018 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Top Goalscorer Thiago
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
Nagoya Grampus Compare
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
V-Varen Nagasaki 42 / 100
Nagoya Grampus 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
V-Varen Nagasaki Nagoya Grampus
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Nagoya Grampus conceded in 89% of 27 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
V-Varen Nagasaki's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
V-Varen Nagasaki has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
V-Varen Nagasaki VS Nagoya Grampus
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Home) 11 Oct
Chiba
1 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
02 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 2 Gamba Osaka
29 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
0 : 3 FC Tokyo
26 Aug
V-Varen Nagasaki
3 : 2 Ehime
Page 1 of 3
Nagoya Grampus
(Away) 29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3 Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
06 Sept
Nagoya Grampus
1 : 3 Machida Zelvia
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
29 Sept
Giravanz Kitakyushu
1 : 3 Nagoya Grampus
19 Sept
FC Tokyo
1 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
02 Sept
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
15 Aug
Kashima Antlers
2 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20:6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7:14 | 6 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:12 | 4 |
| 20 | Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7:18 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
