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Vaipuna vs Tupapa

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Champions League 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Lesatele T.
27' Event
McCoy J.
45' Event
McCoy J.

AI Match Summary

The OFC Champions League 2025 game between Vaipuna and Tupapa finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Tupapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vaipuna
25%
Draws
35%
Tupapa
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Vaipuna

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Tupapa come out ahead of Vaipuna on wins alone.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Vaipuna taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Vaipuna Clean Sheet 10%
Tupapa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vaipuna Tupapa
Matches Played 2 30
Wins 1 13
Draws 0 4
Losses 1 13
Goals Scored 2.5 2.5
Goals Conceded 1 3.4
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 15, 2025 OFC Champions League
Vaipuna vs Tupapa
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vaipuna Compare

Top Goalscorer Lesatele T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Tupapa Compare

Top Goalscorer McCoy J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vaipuna 83 / 100
Tupapa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vaipuna Tupapa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vaipuna Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vaipuna scored in 100% of their last 2 games.

Defensive concern: Tupapa conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Tupapa lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vaipuna VS Tupapa
2.5 Goals Scored 3.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Vaipuna

(Home)
15 Feb
Vaipuna
1 : 2
Tupapa
09 Feb
Royal Puma
0 : 4
Vaipuna

Tupapa

(Away)
15 Aug
Tupapa
1 : 7
ABM Galaxy
12 Aug
Rewa
4 : 2
Tupapa
09 Aug
Lae City
4 : 1
Tupapa
06 Feb
Pago Youth
0 : 3
Tupapa
03 Feb
Tupapa
1 : 1
Vaivase-Tai
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tupapa 2 1 1 0 5:4 4
2 Vaipuna 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
3 Royal Puma 2 0 1 1 3:7 1
Promotion - OFC Champions League 2025 (Main)