Sport Picks
Vakhsh vs Istiqlol Dushanbe Prediction & H2H Stats
Tajikistan
Vysshaya Liga 2025 
Match Events
27'
27'
Haghnazari S.
35'
35'
Bilonog D.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
The Vysshaya Liga 2025 game between Vakhsh and Istiqlol Dushanbe finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
30%
42%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Istiqlol Dushanbe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
42%
/ Low Confidence
- Istiqlol Dushanbe carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Vakhsh Clean Sheet 15%
Istiqlol Dushanbe Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vakhsh | Istiqlol Dushanbe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 21 |
| Draws | 12 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 1.43 | 2.26 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 0.77 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Vakhsh vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:2
Dec 8, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Vakhsh vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
1:1
May 11, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Vakhsh
0:0
Aug 10, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Vakhsh vs Istiqlol Dushanbe
0:1
Apr 13, 2024 Vysshaya Liga
Istiqlol Dushanbe vs Vakhsh
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vakhsh Compare
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Istiqlol Dushanbe Compare
Top Goalscorer Haghnazari S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vakhsh 35 / 100
Istiqlol Dushanbe 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vakhsh Istiqlol Dushanbe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Istiqlol Dushanbe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Vakhsh scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Games between these two average 1.60 goals.
Vakhsh went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Istiqlol Dushanbe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 31 matches.
Scoring Trends
Vakhsh VS Istiqlol Dushanbe
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Vakhsh
(Home) 17 Sept
Vakhsh
0 : 1 Regar-TadAZ
11 Sept
Sardor Tursunzoda
3 : 3 Vakhsh
29 Aug
Vakhsh
1 : 1 Istaravshan
15 Aug
CSKA Pomir Dushanbe
1 : 1 Vakhsh
01 Aug
Vakhsh
4 : 2 Eskhata
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Vakhsh
0 : 1 Regar-TadAZ
29 Aug
Vakhsh
1 : 1 Istaravshan
01 Aug
Vakhsh
4 : 2 Eskhata
13 Jun
Vakhsh
0 : 2 Ravshan Kulob
16 May
Vakhsh
2 : 2 Khosilot Parkhar
Page 1 of 3
Istiqlol Dushanbe
(Away) 15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
05 Sept
Istiqlol Dushanbe
1 : 0 Khosilot Parkhar
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4 Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 7
15 Sept
Khujand
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
30 Aug
Parvoz Bobojon Ghafurov
0 : 4 Istiqlol Dushanbe
15 Aug
Ravshan Kulob
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
02 Aug
Regar-TadAZ
1 : 0 Istiqlol Dushanbe
28 Jun
Sardor Tursunzoda
0 : 1 Istiqlol Dushanbe
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Istiqlol Dushanbe | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 58:18 | 50 |
| 2 | Vakhsh | 22 | 12 | 9 | 1 | 33:18 | 45 |
| 3 | CSKA Pomir Dushanbe | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 38:23 | 37 |
| 4 | Ravshan Kulob | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 26:20 | 35 |
| 5 | Khujand | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 24:25 | 31 |
| 6 | Regar-TadAZ | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 25:24 | 30 |
| 7 | Eskhata | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 31:30 | 30 |
| 8 | Barkchi Hisor | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 22:20 | 27 |
| 9 | Khosilot Parkhar | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27:38 | 24 |
| 10 | Istaravshan | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 23:42 | 19 |
| 11 | Hulbuk | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 15:39 | 13 |
| 12 | Panjsher | 22 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 16:41 | 12 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Relegation - Vysshaya Liga 2025 (Relegation)
