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Valerenga vs Molde - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Norway Norway

Eliteserien Intility Arena, Oslo
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Hestad E.
Assist: Breivik E.
19' Event
Haren L.
Assist: Rajkovic G.
21' Event
Grundetjern M.

AI Match Summary

The Eliteserien game between Valerenga and Molde finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Molde.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Valerenga
20%
Draws
56%
Molde
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Molde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Molde carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Molde's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Eliteserien form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
  • Molde have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Valerenga Clean Sheet 10%
Molde Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valerenga Molde
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 15
Draws 7 3
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 2 2.54
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.46
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 3.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Molde
3:4
Apr 26, 2026 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
5:1
Sep 28, 2025 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
4:1
Jun 22, 2025 Eliteserien
Valerenga vs Molde
2:3
Aug 19, 2023 Eliteserien
Molde vs Valerenga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valerenga Compare

Top Goalscorer Haren L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Grundetjern M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Molde Compare

Top Goalscorer Hestad E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Granaas S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.13
Avg xA / game 1.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valerenga 10 / 100
Molde 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valerenga Molde

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Molde Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.60 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Valerenga scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Molde has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Valerenga went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valerenga VS Molde
2.75 Goals Scored 4.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Valerenga

(Home)
20 Sept
Valerenga
1 : 1
Fredrikstad
17 Sept
Skeid
1 : 4
Valerenga
12 Sept
Lillestrom
2 : 0
Valerenga
06 Sept
Sarpsborg 08
2 : 2
Valerenga
30 Aug
Valerenga
3 : 4
Molde
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Molde

(Away)
04 Oct
Molde
3 : 0
Kristiansund
19 Sept
Molde
1 : 2
Aalesund
16 Sept
Trygg/Lade
0 : 5
Molde
13 Sept
Ham-Kam
1 : 5
Molde
06 Sept
Molde
2 : 0
KFUM Oslo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Viking 22 17 2 3 56:20 53
2 Bodo/Glimt 21 16 2 3 53:19 50
3 Tromso 21 11 5 5 40:29 38
4 Molde 21 11 3 7 44:32 36
5 Rosenborg 21 10 3 8 39:30 33
6 Lillestrom 21 10 2 9 28:29 32
7 Brann 22 9 2 11 39:34 29
8 Fredrikstad 21 8 4 9 25:32 28
9 Sarpsborg 08 21 6 7 8 24:29 25
10 KFUM Oslo 21 7 4 10 25:35 25
11 Sandefjord 21 6 5 10 21:27 23
12 Valerenga 21 6 5 10 34:43 23
13 Ham-Kam 21 6 5 10 29:44 23
14 Aalesund 21 4 9 8 33:46 21
15 Kristiansund 21 5 4 12 21:40 19
16 Start 21 4 4 13 22:44 16
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen 2027 (Main)