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Valmiera vs FK Limbazi

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup 2025 Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, Valmiera
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Buss R.
39' Event
Stupelis O.
43' Event
Adelekun D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 8-0, with Valmiera advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Valmiera
15%
Draws
20%
FK Limbazi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Valmiera carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Valmiera a 65% chance of winning this.
  • Valmiera have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Valmiera, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 20%
FK Limbazi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valmiera FK Limbazi
Matches Played 31 18
Wins 22 8
Draws 3 0
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 3.03 2.17
Goals Conceded 1.26 3.89
Expected Goals (xG) 1.60 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2025 Latvian Cup
Valmiera vs FK Limbazi
8:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Cepelevs D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Buss R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.8

FK Limbazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 85 / 100
FK Limbazi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valmiera FK Limbazi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valmiera's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Historical meetings average 8.00 goals per match.

FK Limbazi has conceded goals in 76% of their last 17 outings.

Valmiera has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Valmiera VS -
2 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Valmiera

(Home)
19 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 4
Riga Mariners
12 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 2
Valmiera
05 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 2
FK Metta
30 Aug
Rezekne
1 : 6
Valmiera
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1
Marupe
Page 1 of 7

FK Limbazi

(Away)
02 May
Valmiera
8 : 0
FK Limbazi
18 May
Aliance
20 : 0
FK Limbazi
11 Jun
Jekabpils SC
:
FK Limbazi
27 May
Plavinas
0 : 3
FK Limbazi
26 Jun
FK Limbazi
0 : 2
Jekabpils SC
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/128-finals
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FK Alberts -
Riga United -
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SK Babite -
Iecava -
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Kekava-Auda -
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Marupe -
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Grobina -
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JFC Viola -
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Skanste -
Alberts JDFS -
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FK Smiltene -
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Tukums 2000 -
Kuivizu Spartaks -
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Upesciema Warriors -
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Riga Mariners -
Valmiera 8
FK Limbazi 0
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FK Cesis -
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Ogre United -
Plavinas -
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Namejs -
Rigas Futbola Skola -
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Bauskas / Memele -
AFA Olaine -
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Augsdaugavas -
RSU -
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LSPA -
Kuldigas/Goldingen -
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Salaspils FK -
Dienvidkurzemes -
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DSVK Traktors -
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Leevon PPK -
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BFC Daugavpils -
FK Union / JFK Daugava -
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Lielupe -
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Rezekne -
Talsi 1
Aliance 5
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Valka -
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JFK Ventspils -
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FK Liepaja -
1/64-finals
Jelgava -
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RFS -
Speks 4
FK Alberts 3
Riga United 6
SK Babite 0
Iecava 1
Kekava-Auda 2
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Marupe -
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FK Metta -
FK Auda Riga -
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Grobina -
Livani 4
JFC Viola 0
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Skanste -
Alberts JDFS -
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FK Smiltene -
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Super Nova -
Riga FC -
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Tukums 2000 -
Kuivizu Spartaks 0
Upesciema Warriors 5
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Riga Mariners -
Valmiera 6
FK Cesis 0
TBD -
Ogre United -
Plavinas 4
Namejs 0
Rigas Futbola Skola 8
Bauskas / Memele 0
AFA Olaine -
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Augsdaugavas -
RSU 5
LSPA 1
Kuldigas/Goldingen 2
Salaspils FK 3
Dienvidkurzemes 3
DSVK Traktors 0
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Leevon PPK -
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BFC Daugavpils -
FK Union / JFK Daugava 5
Lielupe 0
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Rezekne -
Aliance 9
Valka 1
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JFK Ventspils -
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FK Liepaja -
1/32-finals
Jelgava -
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RFS -
Speks 0
Riga United 3
Kekava-Auda 0
Marupe 3
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FK Metta -
FK Auda Riga -
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Grobina -
Livani 0
Skanste 5
Alberts JDFS 5
FK Smiltene 3
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Super Nova -
Riga FC -
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Tukums 2000 -
Upesciema Warriors 0
Riga Mariners 3
Valmiera 4
Ogre United 3
Plavinas 3
Rigas Futbola Skola 2
AFA Olaine 3
Augsdaugavas 1
RSU 0
Salaspils FK 6
Dienvidkurzemes 1
Leevon PPK 2
TBD -
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BFC Daugavpils -
FK Union / JFK Daugava 4
Rezekne 0
Aliance 0
JFK Ventspils 6
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FK Liepaja -
1/16-finals
Jelgava -
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RFS -
Riga United 0
Marupe 3
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FK Metta -
FK Auda Riga -
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Grobina -
Skanste 1
Alberts JDFS 2
TBD -
Super Nova -
Riga FC -
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Tukums 2000 -
Riga Mariners 4
Valmiera 3
Plavinas 3
AFA Olaine 5
Salaspils FK 4
Leevon PPK 5
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BFC Daugavpils -
FK Union / JFK Daugava 1
JFK Ventspils 3
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
1/8-finals
Jelgava 0
RFS 1
Marupe 1
FK Metta 4
FK Auda Riga 1
Grobina 0
Alberts JDFS 1
Super Nova 3
Riga FC 4
Tukums 2000 0
Riga Mariners 6
AFA Olaine 1
Leevon PPK 2
BFC Daugavpils 4
JFK Ventspils 0
FK Liepaja 2
Quarter-finals
RFS 3
FK Metta 2
FK Auda Riga 3
Super Nova 1
Riga FC 10
Riga Mariners 0
BFC Daugavpils 1
FK Liepaja 2
Semi-finals
RFS 0
FK Auda Riga 2
Riga FC 4
FK Liepaja 0
Final
FK Auda Riga 2
Riga FC 1