Sport Picks
Valmiera vs Ogre United
Latvia
Latvian Cup Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs, Valmiera 
Match Events
8'
8'
Sub
Buss R. In: Tkacenko A.
Out: Buss R.
25'
25'
Mashchenko V.
31'
31'
Kayramani F.
Penalty Missed
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 2-4. The second leg ended 2-4.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
57%
20%
23%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Valmiera
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
57%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Valmiera come out ahead of Ogre United on wins alone.
- Model gives Valmiera a 57% chance of winning this.
- Valmiera have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Ogre United, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 94%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 94%
Over 3.5 Goals 69%
Over 4.5 Goals 31%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 18%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Valmiera | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 21 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 21 |
| Goals Scored | 2.8 | 1.19 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.3 | 2.61 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 3.06 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 12, 2026 Latvian Cup
Valmiera vs Ogre United
2:4
May 31, 2025 Latvian Cup
Valmiera vs Ogre United
4:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Valmiera Compare
Top Goalscorer Kayramani F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Stepanovs V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.35
Avg xA / game 1.53
Ogre United Compare
Top Goalscorer Mashchenko V.
1 Goals Assists Leader Kalnins M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Valmiera 85 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Valmiera Ogre United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Valmiera Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Valmiera scored in 97% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 94% of 31 recent games.
These sides typically produce 6.50 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Valmiera remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Valmiera VS Ogre United
3.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Valmiera
(Home) 19 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 4 Riga Mariners
12 Sept
Alberts JDFS
1 : 2 Valmiera
05 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 2 FK Metta
30 Aug
Rezekne
1 : 6 Valmiera
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1 Marupe
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 4 Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Valmiera
2 : 2 FK Metta
22 Aug
Valmiera
4 : 1 Marupe
01 Aug
Valmiera
2 : 1 RFS 2
27 Jul
Valmiera
3 : 0 Riga FC 2
Page 1 of 3
Ogre United
(Away) 20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0 Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0 Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2 FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1 Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3 RFS
Page 1 of 7
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0 Ogre United
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1 Ogre United
14 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
3 : 1 Ogre United
09 Aug
Riga FC
4 : 1 Ogre United
27 Jul
Grobina
2 : 2 Ogre United
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
RFK/RFS 0
Riga Mariners 11
Iecava 0
Alberts JDFS 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
LSPA 1
FK Smiltene 5
Valmiera 2
Skanste 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
JFC Viola 1
Marupe 2
Valka 1
Aliance 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
Upesciema Warriors 0
JFK Ventspils 3
DSVK Traktors 3
Leevon PPK 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
Lielupe 0
FK Metta 6
Kekava-Auda 2
Rezekne 1
Saldus NSS 0
Salaspils FK 4
Speks 6
FK Union / JFK Daugava 0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners 1
Alberts JDFS 0
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
FK Smiltene 1
Valmiera 4
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Marupe 4
Aliance 2
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
JFK Ventspils 1
Leevon PPK 3
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Metta 5
Kekava-Auda 0
Salaspils FK 1
Speks 3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners 3
BFC Daugavpils 4
Valmiera 2
Ogre United 4
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Liepaja 0
Marupe 0
Grobina 1
Tukums 2000 1
Super Nova 2
RFS 2
Jelgava 0
Leevon PPK 2
Riga FC 3
FK Metta 3
Speks 1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils 3
Ogre United 1
FK Auda Riga 3
Grobina 2
Super Nova 0
RFS 1
Riga FC 4
FK Metta 1
Semi-finals
BFC Daugavpils 2
FK Auda Riga 3
RFS 2
Riga FC 3
Final
FK Auda Riga -
Riga FC -
