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Valmiera vs Ogre United

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup Vidzemes Olimpiskais centrs
Sun, Jul 12, 2026
2 - 4
03:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sub
Buss R. In: Tkacenko A.
Out: Buss R.
25' Event
Mashchenko V.
31' Event
Kayramani F.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

The Latvian Cup game between Valmiera and Ogre United finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ogre United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Valmiera
6%
Draws
4%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Valmiera come out ahead of Ogre United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Valmiera a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Cup games in Latvian Cup usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valmiera Ogre United
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 16 8
Draws 3 5
Losses 9 19
Goals Scored 2.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Latvian Cup
Valmiera vs Ogre United
2:4
May 31, 2025 Latvian Cup
Valmiera vs Ogre United
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Kayramani F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Stepanovs V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Ogre United Compare

Top Goalscorer Mashchenko V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kalnins M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valmiera 85 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valmiera Ogre United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Valmiera found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).

Ogre United's defensive record shows goals conceded in 88% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 6.50 goals per match.

Valmiera went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valmiera VS Ogre United
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
FK Auda Riga-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
Upesciema Warriors0
JFK Ventspils3
DSVK Traktors3
Leevon PPK5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Riga FC-
Tukums 2000-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Super Nova-
Lielupe0
FK Metta6
Kekava-Auda2
Rezekne1
Saldus NSS0
Salaspils FK4
Speks6
FK Union / JFK Daugava0
LSPA1
FK Smiltene5
Valmiera2
Skanste0
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Ogre United-
RFK/RFS0
Riga Mariners11
Iecava0
Alberts JDFS5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
BFC Daugavpils-
JFC Viola1
Marupe2
Valka1
Aliance5
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Grobina-
RFS-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
1/16-finals
FK Auda Riga-
TBD-
TBD-
FK Liepaja-
JFK Ventspils1
Leevon PPK3
TBD-
Riga FC-
Tukums 2000-
TBD-
TBD-
Super Nova-
FK Metta5
Kekava-Auda0
Salaspils FK1
Speks3
FK Smiltene1
Valmiera4
TBD-
Ogre United-
Riga Mariners1
Alberts JDFS0
TBD-
BFC Daugavpils-
Marupe4
Aliance2
TBD-
Grobina-
RFS-
TBD-
TBD-
Jelgava-
1/8-finals
FK Auda Riga1
FK Liepaja0
Leevon PPK2
Riga FC3
Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
FK Metta3
Speks1
Valmiera2
Ogre United4
Riga Mariners3
BFC Daugavpils4
Marupe0
Grobina1
RFS2
Jelgava0
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-