Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Valur vs Hafnarfjordur

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Hlídarendi, Reykjavík
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Palsson A.
Assist: Heimisson L.
14' Event
Gunnarsson H.
Assist: Haraldsson T.
37' Event
Gudmundsson A.
Own Goal

AI Match Summary

The Besta deild karla game between Valur and Hafnarfjordur finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Valur.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Valur
35%
Draws
37%
Hafnarfjordur
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Hafnarfjordur

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Valur carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Valur Clean Sheet 17%
Hafnarfjordur Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Valur Hafnarfjordur
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 5
Draws 3 11
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.71 1.45
Goals Conceded 2.04 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 12, 2026 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Valur
2:0
Apr 23, 2026 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
3:0
Oct 19, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
4:4
Jul 27, 2025 Besta deild karla
Valur vs Hafnarfjordur
3:1
May 4, 2025 Besta deild karla
Hafnarfjordur vs Valur
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Valur Compare

Top Goalscorer Palsson A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gunnarsson H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Hafnarfjordur Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Valur 31 / 100
Hafnarfjordur 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Valur Hafnarfjordur

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick HAF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Valur scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Hafnarfjordur conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Valur went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Valur VS Hafnarfjordur
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Valur

(Home)
09 Aug
Breidablik
1 : 3
Valur
06 Aug
Valur
0 : 2
Nordsjaelland
03 Aug
Valur
2 : 3
Stjarnan
30 Jul
Zrinjski
2 : 2
Valur
23 Jul
Valur
1 : 0
Zrinjski
Page 1 of 6

Hafnarfjordur

(Away)
09 Aug
KA Akureyri
0 : 1
Hafnarfjordur
05 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
1 : 1
KR Reykjavik
26 Jul
Fram
0 : 0
Hafnarfjordur
20 Jul
Hafnarfjordur
0 : 0
Breidablik
12 Jul
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 0
Valur
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 18 14 3 1 58:16 45
2 KR Reykjavik 18 12 3 3 64:39 39
3 Fram 18 11 4 3 45:34 37
4 Breidablik 18 8 5 5 36:30 29
5 Valur 18 7 1 10 31:36 22
6 Akranes 18 6 4 8 30:36 22
7 Keflavik 18 6 4 8 28:34 22
8 Stjarnan 18 6 3 9 33:43 21
9 IBV Vestmannaeyjar 18 4 5 9 29:38 17
10 Hafnarfjordur 18 3 8 7 22:32 17
11 KA Akureyri 18 4 3 11 24:36 15
12 Thor Akureyri 18 4 3 11 18:44 15
Promotion - Besta deild karla (Championship Group)
Relegation - Besta deild karla (Relegation Group)