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Vanuatu vs New Caledonia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Friendly International 2024
Sat, Aug 31, 2024
VS
04:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu host New Caledonia in the Friendly International 2024. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. New Caledonia have shipped 1.42 goals a game lately, while Vanuatu have conceded 2.28 and scored 1.34. Head-to-head, Vanuatu have won 1 to New Caledonia's 1, with 3 draws. They last met on Sep 27, 2026, ending 4:1. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.00, favoring New Caledonia. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Vanuatu
15%
Draws
26%
New Caledonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and New Caledonia come out ahead of Vanuatu on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Vanuatu's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Friendly International 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 20%
New Caledonia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu New Caledonia
Matches Played 29 24
Wins 10 13
Draws 4 2
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.34 2.17
Goals Conceded 2.28 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
4:1
Dec 9, 2024 Friendly International
New Caledonia vs Vanuatu
0:0
Aug 31, 2024 Friendly International
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
0:0
Jun 18, 2024 OFC Nations Cup
Vanuatu vs New Caledonia
0:0
Nov 28, 2023 Pacific Games
New Caledonia vs Vanuatu
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu 85 / 100
New Caledonia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu New Caledonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vanuatu scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

New Caledonia let in goals in 63% of their last 24 matches.

Solid form: Vanuatu remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: New Caledonia registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vanuatu VS New Caledonia
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vanuatu

(Home)
03 Oct
Fiji
1 : 0
Vanuatu
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Solomon Islands
3 : 3
Vanuatu
21 Sept
Fiji
0 : 1
Vanuatu
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
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New Caledonia

(Away)
30 Sept
Fiji
2 : 1
New Caledonia
27 Sept
Vanuatu
4 : 1
New Caledonia
24 Sept
Papua New Guinea
1 : 2
New Caledonia
21 Sept
New Caledonia
0 : 2
Solomon Islands
27 Mar
New Caledonia
0 : 1
Jamaica
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