Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vanuatu vs Samoa

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

Pacific Games 2019
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vanuatu in this Pacific Games 2019 matchup, with the score ending 11-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vanuatu.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Vanuatu
15%
Draws
32%
Samoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vanuatu

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Vanuatu lately — more wins on the board than Samoa.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Vanuatu taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).
  • History favors Vanuatu here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Vanuatu Clean Sheet 15%
Samoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vanuatu Samoa
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 5 1
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 2.12 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.88 3.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2024 World Championship
Vanuatu vs Samoa
4:1
Jul 18, 2019 Pacific Games
Vanuatu vs Samoa
11:0
Jun 3, 2012 World Championship
Vanuatu vs Samoa
5:0
Aug 26, 2007 World Championship
Vanuatu vs Samoa
4:0
May 16, 2004 World Championship
Samoa vs Vanuatu
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vanuatu 84 / 100
Samoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vanuatu Samoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vanuatu Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Samoa conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.60 goals.

Vanuatu's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Vanuatu has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vanuatu VS Samoa
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
2.38 Goals Conceded 4
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Vanuatu

(Home)
18 Sept
Papua New Guinea
2 : 1
Vanuatu
09 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 2
Fiji
06 Jun
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Fiji
23 Nov
Papua New Guinea
2 : 3
Vanuatu
20 Nov
Vanuatu
2 : 1
Solomon Islands
Page 1 of 7

Samoa

(Away)
18 Nov
Samoa
0 : 8
New Zealand
15 Nov
Samoa
0 : 3
Tahiti
12 Oct
Vanuatu
4 : 1
Samoa
09 Sept
Tonga
1 : 2
Samoa
06 Sept
American Samoa
0 : 2
Samoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Zealand U23 4 3 1 0 20:1 10
2 Papua New Guinea 4 3 0 1 16:2 9
3 Vanuatu 4 2 1 1 25:2 7
4 Samoa 4 1 0 3 3:22 3
5 Tonga 4 0 0 4 0:37 0
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 New Caledonia 5 5 0 0 22:0 15
2 Fiji 5 3 1 1 25:7 10
3 Tahiti 5 3 0 2 19:6 9
4 Solomon Islands 5 2 1 2 30:9 7
5 American Samoa 5 0 1 4 2:36 1
6 Tuvalu 5 0 1 4 2:42 1
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Pacific Games 2019 (Play Offs)