Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varazdin vs Rijeka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Varteks, Varaždin
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sikosek G.
17'
Sub
Puncec R. In: Tepsic N.
Out: Puncec R.
20' Event
Mamut I.
Assist: Tavares I.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Varazdin and Rijeka finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varazdin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Varazdin
35%
Draws
38%
Rijeka
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Rijeka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Rijeka haven't matched Varazdin's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Varazdin here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Varazdin Clean Sheet 19%
Rijeka Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varazdin Rijeka
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 17 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.67 1.54
Goals Conceded 0.85 0.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
2:0
Apr 22, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 HNL
Rijeka vs Varazdin
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 HNL
Rijeka vs Varazdin
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varazdin Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamut I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Rijeka Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varazdin 32 / 100
Rijeka 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varazdin Rijeka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rijeka Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varazdin's goal record stands at 85% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Recent resilience: Varazdin stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Rijeka conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Varazdin VS Rijeka
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Varazdin

(Home)
02 Oct
Aluminij
0 : 0
Varazdin
19 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Osijek
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Zagora
0 : 4
Varazdin
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
Page 1 of 6

Rijeka

(Away)
26 Sept
Rijeka
0 : 1
Union Berlin
20 Sept
Rijeka
3 : 0
Hajduk Split
16 Sept
Vrbovec
0 : 6
Rijeka
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
05 Sept
Rijeka
4 : 1
Osijek
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 Rudes 9 2 1 6 12:25 7
10 HNK Gorica 9 1 2 6 6:14 5
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)