Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varazdin vs Rijeka

Croatia Croatia

HNL Gradski stadion Varazdin, Varaždin
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sikosek G.
17'
Sub
Puncec R. In: Tepsic N.
Out: Puncec R.
20' Event
Mamut I.
Assist: Tavares I.

AI Match Summary

The HNL game between Varazdin and Rijeka finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varazdin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Varazdin
15%
Draws
44%
Rijeka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Rijeka

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Rijeka haven't matched Varazdin's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Varazdin here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Varazdin Clean Sheet 68%
Rijeka Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varazdin Rijeka
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 17
Draws 4 5
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.62 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
2:0
Apr 22, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
1:0
Feb 14, 2026 HNL
Rijeka vs Varazdin
3:1
Nov 9, 2025 HNL
Varazdin vs Rijeka
1:0
Aug 24, 2025 HNL
Rijeka vs Varazdin
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varazdin Compare

Top Goalscorer Mamut I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Rijeka Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varazdin 41 / 100
Rijeka 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varazdin Rijeka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varazdin Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varazdin's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Varazdin stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Defensive concern: Rijeka conceded in 50% of 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Varazdin VS Rijeka
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varazdin

(Home)
09 Aug
Slaven Belupo
1 : 4
Varazdin
02 Aug
Varazdin
2 : 1
Hajduk Split
30 Jul
Jablonec
2 : 0
Varazdin
23 Jul
Varazdin
3 : 2
Jablonec
16 Jul
Varazdin
2 : 0
Beltinci
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Rijeka

(Away)
13 Aug
Ilves
1 : 1
Rijeka
06 Aug
Rijeka
1 : 0
Ilves
02 Aug
Rijeka
2 : 1
Rudes
30 Jul
Derry City
0 : 1
Rijeka
23 Jul
Rijeka
1 : 0
Derry City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Osijek 3 3 0 0 9:1 9
2 Din. Zagreb 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
3 Varazdin 2 2 0 0 6:2 6
4 Lok. Zagreb 3 2 0 1 6:4 6
5 Istra 1961 3 1 1 1 7:5 4
6 Rijeka 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
7 Hajduk Split 2 0 1 1 3:4 1
8 HNK Gorica 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
9 Slaven Belupo 3 0 0 3 1:9 0
10 Rudes 3 0 0 3 2:12 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)