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Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo Prediction & H2H Stats

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

14'
Nikolov B.
22' Event
Ajetovikj N.
Own Goal
27'
Danev D.

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL 2025/2026 game between Vardar and Shkendija Tetovo finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Vardar
30%
Draws
33%
Shkendija Tetovo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Vardar haven't matched Shkendija Tetovo's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vardar's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular 1. MFL 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Shkendija Tetovo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Shkendija Tetovo
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 18 19
Draws 5 4
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 2.03 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.16
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:2
May 23, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
3:0
Mar 5, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 1. MFL
Shkendija Tetovo vs Vardar
0:1
Mar 14, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Zakaric G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nikolov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Shkendija Tetovo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 86 / 100
Shkendija Tetovo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Shkendija Tetovo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (31 games).

Vardar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Shkendija Tetovo let in goals in 68% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Shkendija Tetovo
2.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
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Shkendija Tetovo

(Away)
26 Sept
Kamjani
0 : 3
Shkendija Tetovo
18 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
4 : 1
Bashkimi
11 Sept
Arsimi
2 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
04 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
1 : 3
Tikves
28 Aug
Sileks
0 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vardar 33 26 5 2 80:21 83
2 Shkendija Tetovo 33 23 5 5 67:30 74
3 Struga 33 19 5 9 68:28 62
4 Sileks 33 16 5 12 59:36 53
5 Tikves 33 14 6 13 59:47 48
6 Arsimi 33 13 7 13 50:53 46
7 Bashkimi 33 11 9 13 40:54 42
8 Pelister 33 10 10 13 41:42 40
9 Brera Strumica 33 10 10 13 46:56 40
10 Makedonija GP 33 9 7 17 42:57 34
11 Rabotnicki 33 9 6 18 45:58 33
12 Shkupi 33 0 1 32 15:130 1
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL (Main)