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Stadium Background

Vardar vs Sileks - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Danev D.
38' Event
Angjeleski D.
46'
Sub
Castaneda D. In: Ferreira Pires M. A.
Out: Castaneda D.

AI Match Summary

The 1. MFL game between Vardar and Sileks finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vardar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Vardar
35%
Draws
10%
Sileks
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Vardar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Vardar a 55% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Vardar here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Vardar Clean Sheet 68%
Sileks Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vardar Sileks
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 18 11
Draws 5 8
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 2.07 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 24, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Sileks
4:1
May 9, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Sileks
2:1
Mar 9, 2026 1. MFL
Sileks vs Vardar
0:1
Oct 31, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Sileks
2:1
Mar 9, 2025 1. MFL
Sileks vs Vardar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vardar Compare

Top Goalscorer Danev D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Manevski M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Sileks Compare

Top Goalscorer Angjeleski D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vardar 95 / 100
Sileks 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vardar Sileks

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Vardar stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Sileks lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vardar VS Sileks
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vardar

(Home)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

Sileks

(Away)
18 Sept
Sileks
0 : 0
Tikves
13 Sept
Sileks
2 : 2
Bregalnica Stip
07 Sept
Struga
1 : 0
Sileks
28 Aug
Sileks
0 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
24 Aug
Vardar
4 : 1
Sileks
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 8 6 1 1 20:8 19
2 Struga 8 5 2 1 19:5 17
3 Vardar 8 4 2 2 14:8 14
4 Tikves 8 3 4 1 17:7 13
5 Shkendija Haracine 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
6 Bregalnica Stip 8 3 1 4 11:13 10
7 Sileks 8 2 3 3 13:10 9
8 Arsimi 8 2 2 4 6:19 8
9 Bashkimi 8 1 1 6 7:25 4
10 FK Skopje 8 0 3 5 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)