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Varde vs Esbjerg II Prediction & H2H Stats

Denmark Denmark

2nd Division West 2008/2009
Wed, Aug 27, 2008
3 - 0
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Varde host Esbjerg II in the 2nd Division West 2008/2009. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Varde have averaged 1.41 scored and 2.44 conceded recently, against Esbjerg II's 1.9 scored and 1.47 conceded. Past meetings favor Varde slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 27, 2010, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.23 xG vs 1.63) point toward Esbjerg II. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Varde
15%
Draws
57%
Esbjerg II
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Esbjerg II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Esbjerg II carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Esbjerg II a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Varde Clean Sheet 14%
Esbjerg II Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varde Esbjerg II
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 7 8
Losses 17 10
Goals Scored 1.41 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.44 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2010 2nd Division West
Esbjerg II vs Varde
1:1
Sep 5, 2009 2nd Division West
Varde vs Esbjerg II
3:2
Apr 9, 2009 2nd Division West
Esbjerg II vs Varde
4:3
Aug 27, 2008 2nd Division West
Varde vs Esbjerg II
3:0
Apr 5, 2008 2nd Division West
Varde vs Esbjerg II
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varde 10 / 100
Esbjerg II 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varde Esbjerg II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esbjerg II Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esbjerg II has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Varde scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Esbjerg II's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Varde VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2.25 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varde

(Home)
05 Aug
Varde
1 : 2
OKS Odense
06 Aug
Varde
0 : 6
Kolding IF
08 Aug
Kolding BK
4 : 0
Varde
30 Aug
Varde
0 : 2
Aarhus Fremad
02 Aug
Varde
4 : 3
Tarup-Paarup
Page 1 of 7

Esbjerg II

(Away)
06 Jun
Ikast
3 : 4
Esbjerg II
29 May
Esbjerg II
2 : 3
Vendsyssel FF
26 May
Svendborg
3 : 1
Esbjerg II
22 May
Esbjerg II
2 : 0
Naesby
15 May
Odense II
3 : 1
Esbjerg II
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Fyn 30 19 7 4 75:32 64
2 Odense II 30 18 3 9 61:45 57
3 Brabrand 30 15 6 9 50:32 51
4 Jammerbugt 30 16 3 11 63:48 51
5 Esbjerg II 30 15 6 9 53:46 51
6 Randers Freja 30 15 4 11 54:39 49
7 Hobro 30 13 9 8 54:48 48
8 Aarhus Fremad 30 13 6 11 47:47 45
9 Svendborg 30 14 2 14 53:51 44
10 Varde 30 13 4 13 49:58 43
11 Aalborg II 30 11 4 15 47:50 37
12 Ikast 30 8 8 14 44:63 32
13 Vendsyssel FF 30 7 9 14 35:48 30
14 Aarhus II 30 6 8 16 42:61 26
15 Naesby 30 6 8 16 31:52 26
16 Skovbakken 30 6 3 21 35:73 21
Relegation - 2nd Division East 2008/2009 (Play Out)
Promotion - 1st Division 2009/2010 (Main)
Promotion - 2nd Division East 2008/2009 (Play Offs)