Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varea vs CD Calahorra

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Taha M.
75' Event
Ubis E.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 game between Varea and CD Calahorra finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Varea
30%
Draws
47%
CD Calahorra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: CD Calahorra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Varea come out ahead of CD Calahorra on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Varea Clean Sheet 14%
CD Calahorra Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varea CD Calahorra
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 17 16
Draws 8 9
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.3 2.47
Goals Conceded 0.7 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CD Calahorra
1:1
Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CD Calahorra vs Varea
1:1
Apr 22, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
CD Calahorra vs Varea
1:0
Nov 26, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CD Calahorra
0:2
Jan 15, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 16
Varea vs CD Calahorra
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varea Compare

Top Goalscorer Ubis E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

CD Calahorra Compare

Top Goalscorer Taha M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varea 35 / 100
CD Calahorra 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varea CD Calahorra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CD Calahorra Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varea's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Varea remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: CD Calahorra has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varea VS CD Calahorra
0.75 Goals Scored 2.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 88%
13% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Varea

(Home)
13 Sept
Varea
0 : 0
San Marcial
06 Sept
Cenicero
1 : 1
Varea
24 May
Varea
0 : 2
Oyonesa
17 May
Oyonesa
0 : 0
Varea
10 May
Varea
0 : 1
Oyonesa
Page 1 of 6

CD Calahorra

(Away)
18 Sept
Agoncillo
3 : 5
CD Calahorra
13 Sept
CD Calahorra
2 : 0
Oyonesa
06 Sept
CDFC La Calzada
2 : 1
CD Calahorra
24 May
Arnedo
1 : 0
CD Calahorra
17 May
CD Calahorra
0 : 2
Arnedo
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones B 34 26 8 0 99:22 86
2 Varea 34 22 7 5 51:25 73
3 Arnedo 34 21 9 4 72:26 72
4 CD Calahorra 34 17 12 5 86:26 63
5 Oyonesa 34 18 7 9 54:41 61
6 Anguiano 34 17 9 8 49:36 60
7 Haro Deportivo 34 14 9 11 54:46 51
8 Agoncillo 34 13 8 13 59:49 47
9 Vianes 34 11 9 14 39:51 42
10 Yague 34 9 13 12 48:52 40
11 San Marcial 34 10 9 15 39:59 39
12 Berceo 34 10 9 15 42:50 39
13 CDFC La Calzada 34 10 8 16 40:55 38
14 Comillas CF 34 11 5 18 32:58 38
15 Pradejon 34 9 8 17 30:49 35
16 Villegas 34 7 7 20 36:66 28
17 Autol 34 4 6 24 20:80 18
18 Pena Balsamaiso 34 0 11 23 27:86 11
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 16 2025/2026 (Play Offs)