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Varese FC vs Pro Sesto - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Lordkipanidze D.
68' Event
Maffioletti L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Varese FC and Pro Sesto finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pro Sesto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Varese FC
30%
Draws
51%
Pro Sesto
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pro Sesto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Varese FC haven't matched Pro Sesto's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Pro Sesto a 51% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Varese FC Clean Sheet 10%
Pro Sesto Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varese FC Pro Sesto
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.39 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.57 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Varese FC vs Pro Sesto
0:2
Aug 19, 2023 Club Friendly
Pro Sesto vs Varese FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Pro Sesto Compare

Top Goalscorer Lordkipanidze D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Maffioletti L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 10 / 100
Pro Sesto 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varese FC Pro Sesto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pro Sesto Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Pro Sesto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Varese FC VS Pro Sesto
1.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varese FC

(Home)
07 Oct
Varese FC
2 : 5
Pro Patria
04 Oct
Crema
3 : 2
Varese FC
27 Sept
Varese FC
1 : 1
Lentigione
20 Sept
US Pontedera
0 : 3
Varese FC
16 Sept
Cittadella Vis Modena
0 : 0
Varese FC
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Pro Sesto

(Away)
04 Oct
Arconatese
1 : 1
Pro Sesto
27 Sept
Pro Sesto
6 : 1
Oltrepo
20 Sept
Crema
0 : 3
Pro Sesto
16 Sept
Pro Sesto
3 : 0
US Pontedera
12 Sept
Varese FC
0 : 2
Pro Sesto
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 6 6 0 0 17:1 18
2 Pro Sesto 6 4 1 1 17:5 13
3 Pro Patria 6 4 1 1 10:4 13
4 Lentigione 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
5 Castellanzese 6 4 0 2 13:5 12
6 Cittadella Vis Modena 6 3 1 2 7:4 10
7 USD Casatese 6 3 1 2 10:9 10
8 Correggese 6 3 1 2 7:9 10
9 Sant'Angelo 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
10 Pavia 6 1 4 1 5:3 7
11 Varese FC 6 1 3 2 7:7 6
12 Varesina 6 1 2 3 7:10 5
13 Solbiatese 5 1 2 2 2:6 5
14 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
15 Crema 6 1 1 4 4:14 4
16 Arconatese 6 0 3 3 4:13 3
17 Oltrepo 6 1 0 5 4:14 3
18 US Pontedera 5 0 0 5 3:15 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)