Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group A

Vado

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Varese FC play Vado in the Serie D - Group A. It looks like a close match. Recently, Varese FC averaged 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. Vado averaged 2.09 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Varese FC won 2, Vado won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 1, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Varese FC and 2.25 for Vado. This points to a Vado double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

Varese FC

21%

Draws

45%

Vado

Draw rate projection: 21% Favored: Vado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Varese FC picked up more points recently compared to Vado.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 2.25 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Varese FC Clean Sheet 10%

Vado Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Varese FC	Vado
Matches Played	31	35
Wins	13	22
Draws	7	7
Losses	11	6
Goals Scored	1.29	2.09
Goals Conceded	1.48	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Vado

Possession: 59% - 52% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Vado vs Varese FC

Possession: 40% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

3:1

Mar 9, 2025 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Vado

Possession: 54% - 43% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Nov 3, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Vado vs Varese FC

Possession: 46% - 48% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

May 12, 2024 Serie D - Group A

Varese FC vs Vado

Possession: 42% - 55% Cards: 4 - 2

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varese FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tentoni T.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

Vado Compare

Avg xG / game 2.73

Avg xA / game 1.67

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varese FC 33 / 100

Vado 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Varese FC Vado

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vado or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Varese FC attacking → ← attacking Vado

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varese FC scored in 81% of their last 31 games.

Vado let in goals in 57% of their last 35 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Varese FC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Vado lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 73

1.38 Goals expected (xG) 3.00

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vado	34	24	6	4	69:24	78
2	Ligorna	34	21	9	4	64:26	72
3	AS Biellese	34	16	9	9	48:29	57
4	Varese FC	34	16	8	10	43:43	56
5	Chisola	34	16	7	11	44:36	55
6	Sestri Levante	34	15	9	10	54:34	54
7	Sanremese	34	13	10	11	37:30	49
8	Valenzana	34	12	9	13	33:48	45
9	Celle Varazze	34	12	8	14	41:47	44
10	Saluzzo	34	11	10	13	48:44	43
11	Club Milano	34	12	6	16	43:49	42
12	Imperia Calcio	34	10	11	13	36:44	41
13	Cairese	34	9	13	12	29:34	40
14	Derthona FbC	34	11	7	16	36:46	40
15	Gozzano	34	9	12	13	37:42	39
16	Asti Calcio	34	8	11	15	32:42	35
17	Lavagnese	34	5	12	17	32:52	27
18	NovaRomentin	34	6	3	25	26:82	16