Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varesina vs AC Leon

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Costantino D.
(Penalty)
66' Event
Gervasoni M.
70' Event
Gervasoni M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B game between Varesina and AC Leon finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AC Leon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Varesina
35%
Draws
13%
AC Leon
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AC Leon come out ahead of Varesina on wins alone.
  • Model gives Varesina a 80% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Varesina Clean Sheet 68%
AC Leon Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina AC Leon
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 14
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs AC Leon
1:2
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group B
AC Leon vs Varesina
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

AC Leon Compare

Top Goalscorer Gervasoni M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 86 / 100
AC Leon 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina AC Leon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: AC Leon conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Varesina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS AC Leon
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
12 Apr
Varesina
0 : 1
Chievo
Page 1 of 6

AC Leon

(Away)
10 May
USD Casatese
4 : 0
AC Leon
03 May
USD Casatese
1 : 0
AC Leon
26 Apr
AC Leon
2 : 2
Chievo
19 Apr
Scanzorosciate
0 : 0
AC Leon
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0
AC Leon
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)