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Varesina vs Arconatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Cavagna J.
(Penalty)
40' Event
Menegazzo G.
44' Event
Mazia A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 game between Varesina and Arconatese finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arconatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Varesina
30%
Draws
19%
Arconatese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Varesina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Varesina's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Varesina Clean Sheet 20%
Arconatese Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Arconatese
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.17 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 11, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Arconatese
1:2
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs Varesina
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Arconatese
2:1
Nov 15, 2023 Coppa Italia Serie D
Varesina vs Arconatese
1:0
Oct 22, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Arconatese vs Varesina
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Mazia A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Arconatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Menegazzo G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 67 / 100
Arconatese 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Arconatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varesina Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varesina has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Varesina scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Arconatese has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Arconatese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2
Breno
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1
Varesina
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Arconatese

(Away)
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
13 Aug
Arconatese
2 : 2
AC Leon
04 May
Breno
4 : 1
Arconatese
27 Apr
Arconatese
2 : 1
Chievo
17 Apr
Sangiuliano City
3 : 0
Arconatese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ospitaletto 38 21 12 5 66:34 75
2 Pro Palazzolo 38 20 10 8 69:36 70
3 Desenzano Calvina 38 19 12 7 51:29 69
4 USD Casatese 38 19 11 8 58:34 68
5 Folgore Caratese 38 20 8 10 66:42 68
6 Varesina 38 17 13 8 61:44 64
7 Chievo 38 16 9 13 49:37 57
8 Pro Sesto 38 13 13 12 45:43 52
9 Club Milano 38 14 7 17 44:50 49
10 Sant'Angelo 38 11 15 12 41:41 48
11 Sondrio 38 12 11 15 39:51 47
12 Breno 38 11 14 13 42:53 47
13 Castellanzese 38 10 16 12 43:53 46
14 Vigasio 38 11 12 15 39:41 45
15 Sangiuliano City 38 11 12 15 39:46 45
16 Crema 38 11 11 16 48:57 44
17 Magenta 38 8 12 18 33:53 36
18 Fanfulla 38 6 14 18 28:57 32
19 Ciliverghe Mazzano 38 7 10 21 41:70 31
20 Arconatese 38 7 10 21 33:64 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2024/2025 (Play Offs)