Sport Picks
Match Events
2'
2'
Guerrisi A.
22'
22'
Manicone C.
53'
53'
Manicone C.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group B game between Varesina and Castellanzese finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
70%
17%
13%
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Varesina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
88%
/ Very High Confidence
- Castellanzese have managed 0.88 goals a game lately — Varesina are scoring more at 1.13.
- Model gives Varesina a 70% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Varesina Clean Sheet 68%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 13%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Varesina | Castellanzese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 11 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 10, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
1:2
Mar 18, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Castellanzese
2:2
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
2:1
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Castellanzese
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Varesina
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Varesina Compare
Top Goalscorer Manicone C.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Castellanzese Compare
Top Goalscorer Guerrisi A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Chessa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Varesina 77 / 100
Castellanzese 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Varesina Castellanzese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Varesina scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Defensive concern: Castellanzese conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Varesina has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Varesina VS Castellanzese
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Varesina
(Home) 10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2 Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2 Varesina
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2 Breno
19 Apr
AC Milan U23
0 : 1 Varesina
12 Apr
Varesina
0 : 1 Chievo
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Varesina
2 : 2 Breno
12 Apr
Varesina
0 : 1 Chievo
28 Mar
Varesina
1 : 2 AC Leon
18 Mar
Varesina
2 : 2 Castellanzese
22 Feb
Varesina
1 : 1 Scanzorosciate
Page 1 of 3
Castellanzese
(Away) 10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2 Varesina
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1 Castellanzese
26 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 3 AC Milan U23
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2 Castellanzese
12 Apr
Castellanzese
1 : 0 AC Leon
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1 Castellanzese
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2 Castellanzese
02 Apr
USD Casatese
1 : 0 Castellanzese
22 Mar
Pavia
1 : 0 Castellanzese
18 Mar
Varesina
2 : 2 Castellanzese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore Caratese | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:27 | 68 |
| 2 | USD Casatese | 34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 49:28 | 61 |
| 3 | Chievo | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 52:43 | 60 |
| 4 | AC Milan U23 | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 62:37 | 56 |
| 5 | AC Leon | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 6 | Brusaporto | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:38 | 51 |
| 7 | Oltrepo | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 38:36 | 50 |
| 8 | Scanzorosciate | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 41:33 | 47 |
| 9 | Villa Valle | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43:46 | 47 |
| 10 | Ciserano-Bergamo | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 33:31 | 46 |
| 11 | Caldiero Terme | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 50:40 | 45 |
| 12 | Real Calepina | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 42:47 | 42 |
| 13 | Castellanzese | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41:39 | 41 |
| 14 | Breno | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39:51 | 38 |
| 15 | Pavia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:47 | 37 |
| 16 | Varesina | 34 | 7 | 15 | 12 | 38:44 | 36 |
| 17 | Sondrio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 37:64 | 31 |
| 18 | Vogherese | 34 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 21:80 | -17 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group B (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B (Play Out)
