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Varesina vs Chievo

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

30' Event
Paloschi A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 game between Varesina and Chievo finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Chievo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Varesina
20%
Draws
52%
Chievo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Chievo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Varesina haven't matched Chievo's recent run of results.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Chievo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Varesina Clean Sheet 13%
Chievo Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Chievo
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 9 17
Draws 12 5
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.16 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.19 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Chievo
0:1
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Varesina
1:2
Jan 29, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Chievo
2:3
Oct 2, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Chievo vs Varesina
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Chievo Compare

Top Goalscorer Paloschi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 27 / 100
Chievo 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Chievo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chievo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Varesina found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (32 games).

Chievo let in goals in 61% of their last 31 matches.

Varesina has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS Chievo
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Varesina

(Home)
16 Sept
Correggese
2 : 1
Varesina
13 Sept
Sant'Angelo
1 : 1
Varesina
06 Sept
Varesina
3 : 2
Cittadella Vis Modena
10 May
Castellanzese
1 : 2
Varesina
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
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Chievo

(Away)
16 Sept
Chievo
2 : 0
Club Milano
12 Sept
Rovato Vertovese
3 : 4
Chievo
05 Sept
Chievo
1 : 0
Pavonese
17 May
USD Casatese
2 : 3
Chievo
10 May
Chievo
2 : 1
AC Milan U23
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)