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Varesina vs Ponte San Pietro

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Amoabeng F.
Own Goal
73' Event
Amoabeng F.
79' Event
Vitale V.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 game between Varesina and Ponte San Pietro finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varesina.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Varesina
22%
Draws
18%
Ponte San Pietro
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Varesina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Ponte San Pietro haven't matched Varesina's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on Varesina taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group B 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Varesina have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Varesina Clean Sheet 20%
Ponte San Pietro Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varesina Ponte San Pietro
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 11 4
Draws 11 6
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 0.88 0
Goals Conceded 1.25 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 21, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Ponte San Pietro
2:1
Dec 10, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Varesina
4:5
Feb 26, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Ponte San Pietro vs Varesina
2:3
Oct 23, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Ponte San Pietro
1:0
Apr 17, 2016 Serie D - Group B
Varesina vs Ponte San Pietro
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varesina Compare

Top Goalscorer Amoabeng F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vitale V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Ponte San Pietro Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varesina 58 / 100
Ponte San Pietro 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varesina Ponte San Pietro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Varesina scored in 72% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Ponte San Pietro conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Varesina remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Varesina VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Caldiero Terme38238755:3277
2Piacenza38228869:3574
3Pro Palazzolo382110749:2673
4Desenzano Calvina381912751:2869
5Varesina382081073:4968
6Arconatese382151258:3868
7Brusaporto381591455:5454
8Clivense3814111338:4753
9Villa Valle381581550:4453
10Folgore Caratese381118944:4551
11USD Casatese3813121353:5351
12Caravaggio3812101644:5146
13Ciserano-Bergamo381361949:5845
14Club Milano3811121541:4445
15Real Calepina3811111638:4744
16Legnano381191834:5042
17Castellanzese389121736:5139
18Crema38992025:4836
19Tritium386112127:5729
20Ponte San Pietro38592431:6324