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Varzim vs Padroense

Portugal Portugal

Second Division - Zona Norte
Varzim Logo

Varzim

1 - 1
FT
Padroense Logo

Padroense

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Second Division - Zona Norte matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Varzim
15%
Draws
34%
Padroense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Varzim lately — more wins on the board than Padroense.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Varzim taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Varzim Clean Sheet 20%
Padroense Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varzim Padroense
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 12 5
Draws 5 5
Losses 14 20
Goals Scored 1.19 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 0.97 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 20, 2013 Second Division - Zona Norte
Varzim vs Padroense
1:1
Sep 2, 2012 Second Division - Zona Norte
Padroense vs Varzim
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varzim 85 / 100
Padroense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varzim Padroense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Padroense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Varzim scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Away concern: Padroense has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Varzim VS -
0.75 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
38% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varzim

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
12 Sept
Varzim
1 : 2
SC Vianense
05 Sept
Varzim
0 : 1
Paredes
29 Aug
Varzim
5 : 1
Trofense
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
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Padroense

(Away)
28 Apr
Padroense
1 : 2
Tirsense
21 Apr
Infesta
2 : 1
Padroense
14 Apr
Padroense
2 : 2
AD Fafe
07 Apr
Ribeirao
3 : 0
Padroense
30 Mar
Padroense
4 : 0
AD Limianos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chaves 30 16 10 4 43:21 58
2 Ribeirao 30 15 10 5 43:24 55
3 SC Mirandela 30 15 8 7 41:29 53
4 Vizela 30 14 9 7 41:29 51
5 AD Limianos 30 12 9 9 33:30 45
6 Tirsense 30 11 12 7 35:32 45
7 Famalicao 30 11 10 9 42:35 43
8 Varzim 30 8 16 6 31:26 40
9 AD Fafe 30 10 10 10 37:33 40
10 Boavista 30 9 11 10 44:40 38
11 Amarante FC 30 7 12 11 30:33 33
12 Gondomar 30 7 12 11 25:27 33
13 Vilaverdense FC 30 7 12 11 22:36 33
14 GD Joane 30 7 7 16 27:48 28
15 Infesta 30 7 4 19 30:51 25
16 Padroense 30 5 6 19 23:53 21
Promotion - Second Division - Zona Centro (Play Offs)