Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Varzim vs Trofense

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 2025/2026 Estádio do Varzim SC, Póvoa de Varzim
Varzim Logo

Varzim

2 - 0
FT
Trofense Logo

Trofense

Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Gunjo J.
Assist: Filipe L.
40' Event
Joaozinho
Assist: Franca F.
55'
Sub
Ivandro In: Lobo G.
Out: Ivandro
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 2025/2026 game between Varzim and Trofense finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Varzim.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Varzim
20%
Draws
19%
Trofense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Varzim

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Varzim carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Varzim a 61% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga 3 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Varzim Clean Sheet 68%
Trofense Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Varzim Trofense
Matches Played 33 35
Wins 15 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.33 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.03 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
2:0
Dec 20, 2025 Liga 3
Varzim vs Trofense
0:1
Oct 11, 2025 Liga 3
Trofense vs Varzim
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Varzim Compare

Top Goalscorer Gunjo J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Joaozinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Trofense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Varzim 95 / 100
Trofense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Varzim Trofense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varzim Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Varzim has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Varzim found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Trofense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 35 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Varzim VS Trofense
1 Goals Scored 0.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Varzim

(Home)
22 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
1 : 4
Varzim
16 Aug
Varzim
2 : 1
AD Marco 09
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
02 Aug
Varzim
1 : 1
Vitoria Guimaraes
29 Jul
Tirsense
0 : 1
Varzim
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Trofense

(Away)
22 Aug
Trofense
1 : 0
Sao Joao de Ver
15 Aug
SC Vianense
2 : 0
Trofense
09 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
Varzim
01 Aug
Trofense
0 : 1
SC Salgueiros
31 Jul
AFS
1 : 1
Trofense
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Amarante FC 14 9 4 1 22:11 31
2 Academica 14 8 4 2 23:13 28
3 CF Os Belenenses 14 7 5 2 25:16 26
4 Mafra 14 5 2 7 17:24 17
5 Vitoria Guimaraes B 14 4 5 5 16:17 17
6 Varzim 14 4 2 8 13:19 14
7 Santarem 14 2 4 8 13:20 10
8 Trofense 14 2 4 8 7:16 10
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)