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Vastese vs Nuova Florida - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
de Cerchio A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 game between Vastese and Nuova Florida finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vastese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Vastese
15%
Draws
34%
Nuova Florida
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vastese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Nuova Florida carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Vastese's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 25%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Vastese Clean Sheet 68%
Nuova Florida Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastese Nuova Florida
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 8 11
Draws 8 9
Losses 14 14
Goals Scored 0.9 1.09
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.74
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Nuova Florida
1:0
Dec 18, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Nuova Florida vs Vastese
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastese Compare

Top Goalscorer de Cerchio A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Nuova Florida Compare

Avg xG / game 0.67
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastese 50 / 100
Nuova Florida 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastese Nuova Florida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vastese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vastese found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Nuova Florida has conceded goals in 71% of their last 34 outings.

Nuova Florida lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Vastese VS Nuova Florida
1 Goals Scored 0.38
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 50%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastese

(Home)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
Page 1 of 6

Nuova Florida

(Away)
12 May
Latte Dolce
3 : 2
Nuova Florida
05 May
Nuova Florida
0 : 3
Romana
27 Apr
Latte Dolce
2 : 2
Nuova Florida
21 Apr
Nuova Florida
3 : 1
Anzio Calcio 1924
14 Apr
Cassino
2 : 0
Nuova Florida
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)