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Vastese vs Termoli

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Busetto F.
79' Event
El Ouazni B.
90' Event
Lorusso F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Termoli advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Vastese
20%
Draws
36%
Termoli
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vastese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Termoli come out ahead of Vastese on wins alone.
  • Model gives Vastese a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Termoli arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Termoli, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 12%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Vastese Clean Sheet 20%
Termoli Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastese Termoli
Matches Played 30 44
Wins 8 10
Draws 8 22
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 0.9 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.17 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Termoli
1:2
Feb 12, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs Termoli
1:1
Oct 9, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Termoli vs Vastese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastese Compare

Top Goalscorer Busetto F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Termoli Compare

Top Goalscorer El Ouazni B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lorusso F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastese 36 / 100
Termoli 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastese Termoli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vastese's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Termoli let in goals in 68% of their last 44 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.33 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Vastese remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Vastese VS Termoli
1 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 38%
0% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastese

(Home)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
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Termoli

(Away)
03 May
Termoli
1 : 1
Aquila Calcio
26 Apr
Ostiamare
1 : 0
Termoli
19 Apr
Termoli
1 : 2
Notaresco Calcio
15 Apr
Termoli
1 : 0
Sammaurese
12 Apr
Teramo
0 : 0
Termoli
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Roma City 2
Notaresco Calcio 3
Vastese 1
Termoli 2