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Vastese vs US Tolentino Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

47' Event
Di Nardo A.
90' Event
Di Nardo A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 game between Vastese and US Tolentino finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vastese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Vastese
15%
Draws
51%
US Tolentino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: US Tolentino

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • US Tolentino haven't matched Vastese's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Vastese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Vastese Clean Sheet 68%
US Tolentino Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vastese US Tolentino
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 6
Draws 8 8
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.63
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 7, 2023 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs US Tolentino
2:0
Sep 4, 2022 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Vastese
1:1
Mar 26, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Vastese vs US Tolentino
0:2
Nov 7, 2021 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Vastese
1:0
Jun 13, 2021 Serie D - Group F
US Tolentino vs Vastese
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vastese Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Nardo A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

US Tolentino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vastese 68 / 100
US Tolentino 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vastese US Tolentino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vastese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

US Tolentino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Vastese scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Vastese went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vastese VS US Tolentino
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Vastese

(Home)
11 Aug
Vastese
1 : 0
Pineto
14 May
Vastese
1 : 2
Termoli
07 May
Pineto
2 : 1
Vastese
30 Apr
Vastese
1 : 0
Nuova Florida
23 Apr
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1
Vastese
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US Tolentino

(Away)
29 Jul
Ascoli
5 : 0
US Tolentino
07 May
US Tolentino
1 : 0
Roma City
30 Apr
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 2
US Tolentino
23 Apr
US Tolentino
2 : 1
Trastevere Calcio
16 Apr
Avezzano
3 : 0
US Tolentino
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pineto 34 21 9 4 50:21 72
2 Vigor Senigallia 34 20 7 7 52:34 67
3 Trastevere Calcio 34 18 8 8 56:41 62
4 Fano 34 18 6 10 45:34 60
5 Cynthialbalonga 34 13 13 8 32:23 52
6 Matese 34 12 11 11 44:38 47
7 Sambenedettese 34 13 8 13 39:37 46
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 10 12 29:27 46
9 Porto D'Ascoli 34 10 15 9 28:27 45
10 Vastogirardi 34 10 13 11 30:31 42
11 Nuova Florida 34 11 9 14 33:44 42
12 Avezzano 34 11 7 16 35:41 40
13 Roma City 34 9 10 15 29:42 37
14 Vastese 34 8 12 14 37:43 36
15 Termoli 34 5 19 10 25:34 34
16 Notaresco Calcio 34 6 13 15 23:41 31
17 Montegiorgio 34 7 10 17 21:34 31
18 US Tolentino 34 7 10 17 25:41 31
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2022/2023 (Play Out)