Sport Picks
Match Events
29'
29'
Macias C.
31'
31'
Mateos J.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 game between Velarde and UD Samano finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
30%
12%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Velarde
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- UD Samano carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Velarde's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Velarde Clean Sheet 68%
UD Samano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Velarde | UD Samano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 34 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 9 | 6 |
| Losses | 16 | 22 |
| Goals Scored | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 2.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 0.99 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 2, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UD Samano
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
1:3
Mar 16, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
Velarde vs UD Samano
4:3
Oct 27, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
3:0
Feb 24, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 3
UD Samano vs Velarde
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Velarde Compare
Top Goalscorer Macias C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
UD Samano Compare
Top Goalscorer Mateos J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.55
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Velarde 95 / 100
UD Samano 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Velarde UD Samano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Velarde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
UD Samano has conceded goals in 85% of their last 34 outings.
H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.
Recent resilience: Velarde stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
UD Samano lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Velarde VS UD Samano
0.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0 Goals Conceded 3.38
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 88%
0% Over 3.5 75%
Recent Form & Match History
Velarde
(Home) 13 Sept
CD Barquereno
0 : 1 Velarde
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0 Naval Reinosa
11 May
Velarde
0 : 3 Vimenor
05 May
Torina
0 : 0 Velarde
01 May
Velarde
0 : 2 CD Siete Villas
Page 1 of 6
05 Sept
Velarde
0 : 0 Naval Reinosa
11 May
Velarde
0 : 3 Vimenor
01 May
Velarde
0 : 2 CD Siete Villas
21 Apr
Velarde
0 : 3 CD Colindres
06 Apr
Velarde
2 : 3 Bezana
Page 1 of 3
UD Samano
(Away) 13 Sept
Vimenor
2 : 1 UD Samano
05 Sept
UD Samano
2 : 2 CD Barquereno
03 May
UD Samano
0 : 5 Bergantinos
26 Apr
Marino De Luanco
4 : 1 UD Samano
19 Apr
UD Samano
0 : 3 Numancia
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13 Sept
Vimenor
2 : 1 UD Samano
26 Apr
Marino De Luanco
4 : 1 UD Samano
12 Apr
Langreo
4 : 1 UD Samano
04 Apr
Sarriana
4 : 0 UD Samano
22 Mar
UD Ourense
3 : 1 UD Samano
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UM Escobedo | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:30 | 68 |
| 2 | CD Laredo | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 49:22 | 61 |
| 3 | Torina | 34 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 45:37 | 60 |
| 4 | Atletico Albericia | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 54:37 | 58 |
| 5 | Vimenor | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 43:32 | 57 |
| 6 | CD Tropezon | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 49:38 | 56 |
| 7 | Bezana | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 49:42 | 56 |
| 8 | Castro | 34 | 16 | 4 | 14 | 41:41 | 52 |
| 9 | Guarnizo | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 37:31 | 48 |
| 10 | CD Revilla | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 41:52 | 44 |
| 11 | Naval Reinosa | 34 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 39:37 | 43 |
| 12 | CD Colindres | 34 | 13 | 4 | 17 | 37:42 | 43 |
| 13 | CD Siete Villas | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 50:48 | 42 |
| 14 | UD Samano | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 40:44 | 41 |
| 15 | Atletico Mineros | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 35:63 | 33 |
| 16 | Solares | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33:54 | 33 |
| 17 | UC Cartes | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 32:50 | 31 |
| 18 | Velarde | 34 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 29:61 | 20 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 3 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
