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Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina

WWIN Liga BiH Stadion Rodjeni, Mostar
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Bajric A. In: Duranovic S.
Out: Bajric A.
58' Event
Rahimic M.
Assist: Abdallah M.
60'
Sub
Zivkovic F. In: Elezi A.
Out: Zivkovic F.

AI Match Summary

The WWIN Liga BiH game between Velez Mostar and FK Sarajevo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Velez Mostar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Velez Mostar
15%
Draws
59%
FK Sarajevo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Sarajevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FK Sarajevo come out ahead of Velez Mostar on wins alone.
  • Velez Mostar are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular WWIN Liga BiH form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Velez Mostar Clean Sheet 17%
FK Sarajevo Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Velez Mostar FK Sarajevo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 5
Losses 12 10
Goals Scored 1.17 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
1:0
May 21, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
2:3
Mar 22, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
1:0
Mar 11, 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
4:1
Feb 25, 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup
FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Velez Mostar Compare

Top Goalscorer Rahimic M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

FK Sarajevo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Velez Mostar 41 / 100
FK Sarajevo 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Velez Mostar FK Sarajevo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Velez Mostar's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

FK Sarajevo let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: Velez Mostar remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Velez Mostar VS FK Sarajevo
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
2 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Velez Mostar

(Home)
19 Sept
Zrinjski
2 : 0
Velez Mostar
13 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 0
FK Sarajevo
06 Sept
Zeljeznicar
3 : 1
Velez Mostar
02 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 1
Radnik Bijeljina
28 Aug
Celik Zenica
3 : 0
Velez Mostar
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FK Sarajevo

(Away)
25 Sept
Gornji Rahic
0 : 3
FK Sarajevo
20 Sept
FK Sarajevo
2 : 0
FK Sloga Meridian
13 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 0
FK Sarajevo
09 Sept
Zeljeznicar
2 : 0
FK Sarajevo
06 Sept
FK Sarajevo
1 : 0
Borac Banja Luka
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zrinjski 8 7 0 1 17:5 21
2 Borac Banja Luka 8 6 1 1 15:7 19
3 FK Sarajevo 8 4 1 3 6:5 13
4 Zeljeznicar 8 3 3 2 10:9 12
5 Siroki Brijeg 8 2 3 3 10:11 9
6 FK Sloga Meridian 8 2 3 3 5:8 9
7 Celik Zenica 8 2 2 4 11:12 8
8 BSK Banja Luka 8 2 2 4 12:14 8
9 Velez Mostar 8 2 1 5 6:14 7
10 Radnik Bijeljina 8 0 4 4 12:19 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)