Sport Picks
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida 
Match Events
9'
9'
Cortes J.
Own Goal
25'
25'
Barreda I.
Penalty Missed
25'
25'
Dominguez A.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
50%
28%
22%
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Venados FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
76%
/ High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Venados FC lately — more wins on the board than Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
- 50% — that's where the model lands on Venados FC taking it.
- Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 17%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venados FC | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 7 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.50 | 2.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 7, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:3
Aug 30, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
4:5
Feb 22, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Sep 8, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Venados FC
1:0
Mar 13, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Venados FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Calero J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Martinez J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Top Goalscorer Cruz J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Tamay A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venados FC 48 / 100
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venados FC Alebrijes de Oaxaca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick VEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Alebrijes de Oaxaca let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.
Venados FC scored in 69% of their last 29 games.
Recent resilience: Venados FC stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Venados FC VS Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Venados FC
(Home) 18 Apr
Tlaxcala
2 : 2 Venados FC
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
05 Apr
Jaiba Brava
1 : 1 Venados FC
28 Mar
Venados FC
4 : 1 Atlante
21 Mar
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
12 Apr
Venados FC
2 : 1 Leones Negros
28 Mar
Venados FC
4 : 1 Atlante
07 Mar
Venados FC
0 : 1 Correcaminos
11 Feb
Venados FC
2 : 0 Cancun
07 Feb
Venados FC
3 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Away) 18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
08 Mar
Irapuato
6 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Feb
Atlante
1 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)