Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Venados FC vs Irapuato - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida
Our Tip

Match Events

9'
Castellanos R.
19' Event
Lora S.
Assist: Dominguez A.
31' Event
Navarrete B.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Venados FC and Irapuato finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Venados FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Venados FC
15%
Draws
53%
Irapuato
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Irapuato

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Irapuato come out ahead of Venados FC on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 10%
Irapuato Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Venados FC Irapuato
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 12
Draws 6 9
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.97 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.41 2.12
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Irapuato
4:1
Aug 2, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Venados FC
4:1
Jan 24, 2015 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Irapuato
4:4
Aug 3, 2014 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Venados FC
1:0
Jan 20, 2013 Liga de Expansion MX
Irapuato vs Venados FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Venados FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Lora S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Navarrete B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Irapuato Compare

Top Goalscorer Rangel J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.93
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Venados FC 30 / 100
Irapuato 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Venados FC Irapuato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Irapuato Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Venados FC's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Irapuato has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Venados FC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Venados FC VS Irapuato
2.25 Goals Scored 1.86
2.38 Goals Conceded 0.57
100% Over 1.5 71%
88% Over 2.5 71%
75% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Venados FC

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2
Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0
Tepatitlan de Morelos
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3
Venados FC
Page 1 of 6

Irapuato

(Away)
27 Sept
Irapuato
3 : 0
Lobos ULMX
22 Sept
Reboceros de La Piedad
2 : 3
Irapuato
13 Sept
Irapuato
2 : 1
Tigres de Alica
05 Sept
Cordobes FC
0 : 3
Irapuato
30 Aug
Irapuato
2 : 1
Los Cabos United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tepatitlan de Morelos 14 7 5 2 21:10 26
2 Cancun 14 7 4 3 24:17 25
3 Club Atletico Morelia 14 7 2 5 18:12 23
4 Atletico La Paz 14 5 7 2 22:12 22
5 Jaiba Brava 14 6 3 5 15:15 21
6 Zacatecas Mineros 14 6 3 5 19:20 21
7 Tapatio 14 6 2 6 28:24 20
8 Atlante 14 5 5 4 21:17 20
9 Irapuato 14 6 2 6 27:24 20
10 Tlaxcala 14 5 5 4 16:17 20
11 Venados FC 14 4 4 6 25:25 16
12 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14 4 4 6 20:29 16
13 Dorados de Sinaloa 14 3 4 7 17:28 13
14 Correcaminos 14 3 3 8 14:27 12
15 Leones Negros 14 2 5 7 15:25 11
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)