Sport Picks
Venados FC vs Leones Negros - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero, Mérida 
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
15%
45%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leones Negros
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Venados FC have won more games recently than Leones Negros.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Venados FC Clean Sheet 10%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venados FC | Leones Negros |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 1.55 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.79 | 1.72 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Leones Negros
1:1
Apr 12, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Leones Negros
2:1
Nov 2, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Venados FC
1:0
Apr 19, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Leones Negros vs Venados FC
3:1
Nov 2, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Venados FC vs Leones Negros
3:0
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venados FC 29 / 100
Leones Negros 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venados FC Leones Negros
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Venados FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Venados FC found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Leones Negros let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: Venados FC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Venados FC VS Leones Negros
2.5 Goals Scored 1.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 63%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Venados FC
(Home) 03 Oct
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Venados FC
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1 Venados FC
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
06 Sept
Jaiba Brava
4 : 3 Venados FC
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1 Club Atletico Morelia
12 Sept
Venados FC
5 : 0 Tepatitlan de Morelos
20 Aug
Venados FC
4 : 2 Dorados de Sinaloa
08 Aug
Venados FC
3 : 2 Tapatio
25 Jul
Venados FC
3 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
Leones Negros
(Away) 04 Oct
Leones Negros
6 : 3 Dorados de Sinaloa
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
26 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 2 Leones Negros
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0 Leones Negros
06 Sept
Tapatio
1 : 3 Leones Negros
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
02 Aug
Cancun
0 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28:15 | 23 |
| 2 | Leones Negros | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27:16 | 23 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26:21 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16:10 | 18 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancun | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19:15 | 17 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11:11 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19:19 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20:20 | 13 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10:23 | 13 |
| 13 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19:23 | 12 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 11 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:30 | 7 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
