Sport Picks
Venlo vs De Graafschap
Netherlands
Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Seacon - De Koel, Venlo 
Match Events
38'
38'
Kaninda N.
Assist: El Allachi C.
54'
54'
Sub
Niemeijer R. In: de Jong F.
Out: Niemeijer R.
59'
59'
Martens N.
Assist: Kaninda N.
AI Match Summary
The Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 game between Venlo and De Graafschap finished 3-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
68%
15%
17%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Venlo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
68%
/ High Confidence
- De Graafschap's 1.86 goals per match outpaces what Venlo have produced (1.76).
- Venlo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Venlo Clean Sheet 15%
De Graafschap Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Venlo | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.76 | 1.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.72 | 2.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs De Graafschap
2:1
Apr 11, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs De Graafschap
3:3
Aug 8, 2025 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Venlo
3:2
Apr 28, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs De Graafschap
3:1
Dec 1, 2024 Eerste Divisie
De Graafschap vs Venlo
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Venlo Compare
Top Goalscorer de Blok L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zandbergen D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
De Graafschap Compare
Top Goalscorer Kaninda N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Martens N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Venlo 84 / 100
De Graafschap 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Venlo De Graafschap
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Venlo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
De Graafschap let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.
Venlo found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Venlo has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Venlo VS De Graafschap
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Venlo
(Home) 11 Sept
Venlo
3 : 1 TOP Oss
04 Sept
Helmond Sport
4 : 2 Venlo
30 Aug
Venlo
4 : 0 FC Emmen
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1 De Graafschap
14 Aug
NAC Breda
0 : 2 Venlo
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Venlo
3 : 1 TOP Oss
30 Aug
Venlo
4 : 0 FC Emmen
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1 De Graafschap
07 Aug
Venlo
3 : 4 Heracles
01 Aug
Venlo
2 : 3 Eupen
Page 1 of 4
De Graafschap
(Away) 11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2 De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0 De Graafschap
29 Aug
De Graafschap
1 : 4 Almere City
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1 De Graafschap
17 Aug
De Graafschap
2 : 5 Jong AZ Alkmaar
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
FC Emmen
1 : 2 De Graafschap
04 Sept
Heracles
5 : 0 De Graafschap
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1 De Graafschap
09 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1 De Graafschap
03 Jul
Heerenveen
7 : 2 De Graafschap
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Den Haag | 38 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 90:37 | 89 |
| 2 | Cambuur | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 75:48 | 78 |
| 3 | Willem II | 38 | 20 | 8 | 10 | 59:42 | 68 |
| 4 | De Graafschap | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 74:58 | 63 |
| 5 | Almere City | 38 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 78:63 | 58 |
| 6 | Waalwijk | 38 | 16 | 10 | 12 | 71:59 | 58 |
| 7 | Jong PSV | 38 | 17 | 5 | 16 | 66:64 | 56 |
| 8 | Roda | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 59:54 | 55 |
| 9 | Den Bosch | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 65:69 | 51 |
| 10 | Dordrecht | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 48:56 | 47 |
| 11 | Eindhoven FC | 38 | 14 | 5 | 19 | 51:69 | 47 |
| 12 | Jong Utrecht | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 58:62 | 46 |
| 13 | Venlo | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 50:58 | 45 |
| 14 | FC Emmen | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 58:72 | 45 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 64:55 | 44 |
| 16 | TOP Oss | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 54:64 | 44 |
| 17 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 38 | 12 | 4 | 22 | 61:76 | 40 |
| 18 | Helmond Sport | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 42:62 | 39 |
| 19 | Maastricht | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 41:73 | 38 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 38 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 50:73 | 35 |
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
