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Ventura County vs Minnesota United 2 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Next Pro Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 AM
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AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Ventura County have averaged 2.14 scored and 1.45 conceded recently, against Minnesota United 2's 1.62 scored and 1.52 conceded. Head-to-head, Ventura County have won 1 to Minnesota United 2's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 16, 2025, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.94 xG vs 1.31) point toward Ventura County. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Ventura County
15%
Draws
47%
Minnesota United 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Minnesota United 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ventura County come out ahead of Minnesota United 2 on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Ventura County have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Minnesota United 2, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Minnesota United 2 here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Ventura County Clean Sheet 18%
Minnesota United 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ventura County Minnesota United 2
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 15
Draws 0 0
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 2.14 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2025 MLS Next Pro
Minnesota United 2 vs Ventura County
0:2
May 12, 2024 MLS Next Pro
Minnesota United 2 vs Ventura County
1:0
May 25, 2023 MLS Next Pro
Minnesota United 2 vs Ventura County
3:2
Apr 10, 2023 MLS Next Pro
Ventura County vs Minnesota United 2
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ventura County 32 / 100
Minnesota United 2 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ventura County Minnesota United 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Minnesota United 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ventura County's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Minnesota United 2 let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.75 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ventura County stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ventura County VS Minnesota United 2
2.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Ventura County

(Home)
20 Sept
Real Monarchs
2 : 1
Ventura County
14 Sept
Ventura County
3 : 0
Tacoma Defiance
10 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes II
1 : 3
Ventura County
06 Sept
Los Angeles FC 2
1 : 2
Ventura County
29 Aug
Colorado Rapids 2
2 : 3
Ventura County
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Minnesota United 2

(Away)
20 Sept
Minnesota United 2
3 : 2
Los Angeles FC 2
17 Sept
Real Monarchs
0 : 1
Minnesota United 2
13 Sept
Minnesota United 2
5 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps 2
06 Sept
Minnesota United 2
2 : 0
Colorado Rapids 2
30 Aug
Houston Dynamo 2
0 : 2
Minnesota United 2
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Crown Legacy -
TBD -
Chattanooga -
New York City II -
Atlanta United 2 -
CT United FC -
Columbus Crew 2 -
New England Revolution II -
Austin FC II -
TBD -
Portland Timbers 2 -
St. Louis City 2 -
Ventura County -
Minnesota United 2 -
Houston Dynamo 2 -
Los Angeles FC 2 -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -