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Venus vs Belenense

Brazil Brazil

Paraense A3 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Venus advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Venus
20%
Draws
47%
Belenense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Belenense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Belenense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Belenense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Belenense, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Belenense have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Venus Clean Sheet 18%
Belenense Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Venus Belenense
Matches Played 13 15
Wins 5 8
Draws 2 1
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 1.31 2
Goals Conceded 1.54 1.53
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 4, 2025 Paraense A3
Belenense vs Venus
3:1
Nov 1, 2025 Paraense A3
Venus vs Belenense
1:0
Jun 12, 2024 Paraense A3
Venus vs Belenense
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Venus 32 / 100
Belenense 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Venus Belenense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Venus scored in 62% of their last 13 games.

Defensive concern: Belenense conceded in 73% of 15 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Venus stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Venus VS Belenense
1.25 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Venus

(Home)
19 Sept
Pedreira
1 : 2
Venus
16 Sept
Venus
5 : 2
ESMAC
11 Sept
Venus
0 : 1
Pedreira
05 Sept
ESMAC
1 : 1
Venus
04 Nov
Belenense
3 : 1
Venus
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Belenense

(Away)
20 Sept
CA Vila Rica
2 : 2
Belenense
16 Sept
Belenense
3 : 2
Sport Belem
11 Sept
Belenense
8 : 0
CA Vila Rica
05 Sept
Sport Belem
5 : 1
Belenense
14 Nov
Belenense
2 : 1
Santos PA
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Gaviao 2
Sport Belem 1
Tesla 1
Atletico Paraense 12
Paraense SC 3
Santos PA 4
Venus 2
Belenense 3
Semi-finals
Gaviao 2
Atletico Paraense 5
Santos PA 5
Belenense 4
Final
Atletico Paraense 1
Santos PA 0