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Verdes vs Motagua

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Central American Cup FFB Field, Belmopan
Verdes Logo

Verdes

0 - 5
FT
Motagua Logo

Motagua

Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Vega L.
(Penalty)
18'
Reyes A.
44'
Melendez D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-5. The second leg ended 0-5.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Verdes
15%
Draws
85%
Motagua
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Motagua

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Motagua come out ahead of Verdes on wins alone.
  • Model gives Motagua a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Motagua arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Motagua, who have won 3 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Motagua here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Verdes Clean Sheet 10%
Motagua Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Verdes Motagua
Matches Played 24 30
Wins 1 17
Draws 3 7
Losses 20 6
Goals Scored 0.54 1.77
Goals Conceded 3.58 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 29, 2026 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Verdes vs Motagua
0:5
Jul 30, 2025 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Verdes vs Motagua
1:4
Aug 2, 2023 CONCACAF Central American Cup
Verdes vs Motagua
0:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Verdes Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Motagua Compare

Top Goalscorer Moya J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Melendez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Verdes 10 / 100
Motagua 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Verdes Motagua

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Motagua Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Motagua let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Verdes found the back of the net in 43% of recent matches (23 games).

Motagua's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Verdes VS Motagua
0.25 Goals Scored 1.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Verdes

(Home)
13 Aug
FAS
4 : 1
Verdes
07 Aug
Verdes
0 : 1
Municipal
29 Jul
Verdes
0 : 5
Motagua
21 Aug
Cartagines
8 : 1
Verdes
15 Aug
Independiente
3 : 1
Verdes
Page 1 of 5

Motagua

(Away)
13 Aug
Motagua
1 : 1
Cartagines
09 Aug
Motagua
0 : 2
Estrella
07 Aug
Motagua
1 : 0
FAS
02 Aug
Juticalpa
0 : 3
Motagua
29 Jul
Verdes
0 : 5
Motagua
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alajuelense 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
2 Plaza Amador 3 2 0 1 9:7 6
3 Luis Angel Firpo 2 1 0 1 5:2 3
4 Diriangen 3 1 0 2 5:9 3
5 Xelaju 2 0 0 2 2:6 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Esteli 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
2 Alianza FC 3 2 0 1 4:4 6
3 Marathon 2 1 1 0 3:0 4
4 Herediano 2 0 1 1 0:1 1
5 Antigua 3 0 0 3 1:7 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saprissa 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
2 Olimpia 2 2 0 0 4:1 6
3 Alianza 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
4 UMECIT 3 0 0 3 2:5 0
5 Deportivo Mixco 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Motagua 3 2 1 0 7:1 7
2 Municipal 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
3 FAS 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
4 Cartagines 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
5 Verdes 3 0 0 3 1:10 0
Promotion - CONCACAF Central American Cup (Play Offs)