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Vietnam U16 vs Japan U16

World World

Friendly International 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vietnam U16 play Japan U16 in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Vietnam U16 averaged 2.84 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Japan U16 averaged 2.34 goals scored and 1.37 conceded. In past meetings, Vietnam U16 won 1, Japan U16 won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 20, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.15 for Vietnam U16 and 1.56 for Japan U16. This points to a Japan U16 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vietnam U16
15%
Draws
45%
Japan U16
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U16

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Vietnam U16 picked up more points recently compared to Japan U16.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.15 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 77%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Over 3.5 Goals 46%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Vietnam U16 Clean Sheet 15%
Japan U16 Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vietnam U16 Japan U16
Matches Played 32 41
Wins 17 22
Draws 2 3
Losses 13 16
Goals Scored 2.84 2.34
Goals Conceded 1.75 1.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 20, 2024 Friendly International
Vietnam U16 vs Japan U16
1:0
Sep 16, 2016 AFC Championship U16
Japan U16 vs Vietnam U16
7:0
Sep 27, 2013 AFC Championship U16
Vietnam U16 vs Japan U16
1:2
Sep 22, 2011 AFC Championship U16
Japan U16 vs Vietnam U16
5:2
Oct 25, 2010 AFC Championship U16
Japan U16 vs Vietnam U16
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vietnam U16 Compare

Top Goalscorer Nguyen V. B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Japan U16 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vietnam U16 39 / 100
Japan U16 43 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vietnam U16 Japan U16

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Japan U16 or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.6%
1.41
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vietnam U16 attacking → ← attacking Japan U16

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vietnam U16 scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Japan U16 let in goals in 68% of their last 41 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Vietnam U16 went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Japan U16 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 69
1.29 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00