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Vila Cortez vs Sao Joao de Ver

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Vila Cortez play Sao Joao de Ver in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2020/2021. Sao Joao de Ver are favorites here. Recently, Vila Cortez averaged 0.64 goals scored and 3.71 conceded. Sao Joao de Ver averaged 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. In past meetings, Vila Cortez won 0, Sao Joao de Ver won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 31, 2021 ended 0:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.35 for Vila Cortez and 0.86 for Sao Joao de Ver. This points to a Sao Joao de Ver double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Vila Cortez
20%
Draws
66%
Sao Joao de Ver
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sao Joao de Ver

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

94% / Very High Confidence
  • Vila Cortez picked up more points recently compared to Sao Joao de Ver.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.35 vs 0.86 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Vila Cortez Clean Sheet 25%
Sao Joao de Ver Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Cortez Sao Joao de Ver
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 2 10
Draws 1 11
Losses 25 11
Goals Scored 0.64 1.22
Goals Conceded 3.71 1.22

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 31, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Vila Cortez vs Sao Joao de Ver
0:3
Oct 18, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Sao Joao de Ver vs Vila Cortez
7:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Cortez 18 / 100
Sao Joao de Ver 61 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Cortez Sao Joao de Ver

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sao Joao de Ver Win (2)
Secondary Pick Sao Joao de Ver & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.2%
1.67
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Vila Cortez attacking → ← attacking Sao Joao de Ver

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Cortez scored in 36% of their last 28 games.

Sao Joao de Ver let in goals in 69% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Vila Cortez went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Sao Joao de Ver lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

7 Points in last 5 41
0.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Anadia22135439:1544
2Canelas 201022125528:1341
3Lusitania FC22116538:2639
4Sao Joao de Ver22108430:1438
5Sanjoanense22812226:1336
6Castro Daire22105723:2435
7Valadares Gaia FC22103936:2733
8SC Espinho2294933:2231
9Beira Mar2294930:2331
10Agueda22451317:2817
11Lusitano FCV22441417:3416
12Vila Cortez2211208:864