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Vila Nova FC vs Aparecidense

Brazil Brazil

Goiano Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Emerson Urso
20'
Guilherme Dourado
24'
Sub
Elias In: Hayner
Out: Elias

AI Match Summary

The Goiano game between Vila Nova FC and Aparecidense finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vila Nova FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vila Nova FC
33%
Draws
27%
Aparecidense
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Vila Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Vila Nova FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Vila Nova FC are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Goiano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Vila Nova FC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 68%
Aparecidense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Nova FC Aparecidense
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 14 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 22, 2026 Goiano
Vila Nova FC vs Aparecidense
3:0
Jan 15, 2025 Goiano
Vila Nova FC vs Aparecidense
1:0
Mar 27, 2024 Goiano
Vila Nova FC vs Aparecidense
3:0
Mar 16, 2024 Goiano
Aparecidense vs Vila Nova FC
2:0
Jan 31, 2024 Goiano
Vila Nova FC vs Aparecidense
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Nova FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Emerson Urso
1 Goals
Assists Leader Andre Luis
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Aparecidense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Nova FC 50 / 100
Aparecidense 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Nova FC Aparecidense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Aparecidense conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Vila Nova FC found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Vila Nova FC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Vila Nova FC VS Aparecidense
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.57
63% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 29%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Goias862014:120
2Vila Nova FC860218:818
3Jataiense842213:914
4Atletico GO842211:814
5ABECAT Ouvidorense842211:814
6Anapolina840410:1212
7Anapolis832311:1211
8CRAC82335:69
9Goiatuba EC82158:157
10Aparecidense813410:146
11Centro Oeste81344:156
12Inhumas80264:112