Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vila Nova FC vs Athletic Club

Brazil Brazil

Serie B Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Douglas Pele
45'
Hayner
46'
Sub
Samuel Otusanya In: Gabriel Moyses
Out: Samuel Otusanya

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Vila Nova FC
33%
Draws
27%
Athletic Club
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Vila Nova FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Vila Nova FC have won more games recently than Athletic Club.
  • Vila Nova FC are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Vila Nova FC Clean Sheet 68%
Athletic Club Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vila Nova FC Athletic Club
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 12
Losses 8 7
Goals Scored 1.38 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Athletic Club
1:1
Sep 9, 2025 Serie B
Vila Nova FC vs Athletic Club
1:1
May 7, 2025 Serie B
Athletic Club vs Vila Nova FC
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vila Nova FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Dellatorre
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Athletic Club Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vila Nova FC 50 / 100
Athletic Club 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vila Nova FC Athletic Club

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vila Nova FC scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Athletic Club has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.67 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Vila Nova FC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vila Nova FC VS Athletic Club
1.38 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma1796220:1233
2EC Juventude1895419:832
3Vila Nova FC1794425:1931
4Operario-PR1794422:1831
5Fortaleza1894521:1731
6Novorizontino1886428:1730
7Sao Bernardo1876524:1727
8Sport Recife1768321:1526
9Goias1774618:2325
10Atletico GO1766519:1924
11Cuiaba1859414:1324
12CRB1865728:3223
13Athletic Club1758416:1623
14Nautico1863922:2321
15Botafogo SP1856720:1821
16Londrina1855825:2520
17Ceara1847716:2119
18Avai1845919:2517
19Ponte Preta17221311:338
20America MG18151212:298