Sport Picks
Vilafranquense vs Nacional
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior 
Match Events
37'
37'
Clayton Sampaio
42'
42'
Sousa A.
46'
46'
Mercado J.
AI Match Summary
Vilafranquense in this Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vilafranquense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
20%
0%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vilafranquense
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Vilafranquense have won more games recently than Nacional.
- Vilafranquense are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Vilafranquense Clean Sheet 68%
Nacional Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Vilafranquense | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 7 | 6 |
| Draws | 12 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.03 | 0.91 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2023 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Nacional
4:0
Oct 19, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Vilafranquense
1:1
Jan 22, 2022 Liga Portugal 2
Vilafranquense vs Nacional
4:3
Aug 15, 2021 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Vilafranquense
4:0
Feb 15, 2020 Liga Portugal 2
Nacional vs Vilafranquense
5:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Vilafranquense Compare
Top Goalscorer Mercado J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nene
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55
Nacional Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Vilafranquense 86 / 100
Nacional 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Vilafranquense Nacional
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Vilafranquense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.
Nacional lost 5 of their last 5 games.
Vilafranquense's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Nacional conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.
Scoring Trends
- VS Nacional
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 88%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Vilafranquense
(Home) 28 May
Vilafranquense
1 : 1 BSAD
19 May
Leixoes
2 : 0 Vilafranquense
14 May
Vilafranquense
0 : 0 Covilha
06 May
Mafra
2 : 1 Vilafranquense
29 Apr
Vilafranquense
2 : 0 Torreense
Page 1 of 6
28 May
Vilafranquense
1 : 1 BSAD
14 May
Vilafranquense
0 : 0 Covilha
29 Apr
Vilafranquense
2 : 0 Torreense
17 Apr
Vilafranquense
0 : 1 Estrela da Amadora
02 Apr
Vilafranquense
4 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 3
Nacional
(Away) 19 Sept
Nacional
0 : 4 Famalicao
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
30 Aug
Nacional
2 : 3 Estrela da Amadora
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 7
05 Sept
Sporting CP
2 : 0 Nacional
23 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes
1 : 0 Nacional
10 Aug
Santa Clara
2 : 2 Nacional
01 Aug
Maritimo
1 : 0 Nacional
23 Jul
Estrela da Amadora
2 : 0 Nacional
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moreirense | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 77:38 | 79 |
| 2 | SC Farense | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 57:34 | 69 |
| 3 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 55:35 | 63 |
| 4 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 51:45 | 53 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 48:40 | 51 |
| 6 | Mafra | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 46:49 | 47 |
| 7 | Vilafranquense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 42:36 | 46 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 43:37 | 46 |
| 9 | Torreense | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 38:41 | 44 |
| 10 | Oliveirense | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 51:50 | 43 |
| 11 | Tondela | 34 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 35:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Penafiel | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 36:47 | 39 |
| 13 | Nacional | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:46 | 39 |
| 14 | Benfica B | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 52:58 | 38 |
| 15 | Leixoes | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38:49 | 38 |
| 16 | BSAD | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:59 | 35 |
| 17 | Trofense | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 31:51 | 32 |
| 18 | Covilha | 34 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 31:57 | 28 |
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2023/2024 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Promotion)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 2022/2023 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2023/2024 (Main)
