Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vilavelhense vs Serra Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare), Cachoeiro de Itapemirim
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Guilherme Augusto
34' Event
Dandan
42' Event
Marcudinho

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Vilavelhense
30%
Draws
8%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Vilavelhense on wins alone.
  • 62% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • Serra arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Vilavelhense, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%
Serra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vilavelhense Serra
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 15
Draws 8 3
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Vilavelhense
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:2
Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Serra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios Cantillo J. D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Dandan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcudinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 77 / 100
Serra 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vilavelhense Serra

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vilavelhense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilavelhense's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Serra let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Vilavelhense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Serra
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Vilavelhense

(Home)
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

Serra

(Away)
06 Jun
Rio Branco ES
1 : 0
Serra
30 May
Serra
1 : 1
Porto Vitoria
24 May
Rio Branco-VN
1 : 0
Serra
20 May
Vitoria ES
3 : 2
Serra
09 May
Serra
2 : 3
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rio Branco ES 1
Porto Vitoria 2
Vitoria ES 5
Forte 2
Vilavelhense 2
Desportiva Ferroviaria 2
Serra 2
Real Noroeste 2
Semi-finals
Porto Vitoria 6
Vitoria ES 5
Vilavelhense 1
Serra 3
Final
Porto Vitoria 4
Serra 3