Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Vilavelhense vs Serra

Brazil Brazil

Capixaba Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare)
Our Tip

Match Events

33'
Guilherme Augusto
34' Event
Dandan
42' Event
Marcudinho

AI Match Summary

The Capixaba game between Vilavelhense and Serra finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Vilavelhense
17%
Draws
13%
Serra
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Serra come out ahead of Vilavelhense on wins alone.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 68%
Serra Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vilavelhense Serra
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 11 18
Draws 9 3
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Serra vs Vilavelhense
2:3
Mar 15, 2026 Capixaba
Serra vs Vilavelhense
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:2
Feb 9, 2026 Capixaba
Vilavelhense vs Serra
1:0
Jun 15, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Serra
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Vilavelhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Palacios Cantillo J. D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Serra Compare

Top Goalscorer Dandan
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcudinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 77 / 100
Serra 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vilavelhense Serra

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick VIL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vilavelhense scored in 77% of their last 30 games.

Serra has conceded goals in 62% of their last 34 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Vilavelhense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Serra
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Rio Branco ES1
Porto Vitoria2
Vitoria ES5
Forte2
Vilavelhense2
Desportiva Ferroviaria2
Serra2
Real Noroeste2
Semi-finals
Porto Vitoria6
Vitoria ES5
Vilavelhense1
Serra3
Final
Porto Vitoria4
Serra3