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Vilavelhense vs Sport-ES

Brazil Brazil

Copa Espirito Santo
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Match Events

2' Event
11' Event
81' Event

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Vilavelhense
20%
Draws
22%
Sport-ES
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vilavelhense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Vilavelhense have won more games recently than Sport-ES.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Vilavelhense taking it.
  • Vilavelhense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Sport-ES, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Vilavelhense Clean Sheet 20%
Sport-ES Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Vilavelhense Sport-ES
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 2
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Sport-ES
2:1
May 4, 2025 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Sport-ES
0:2
May 11, 2024 Copa Espirito Santo
Vilavelhense vs Sport-ES
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Vilavelhense 67 / 100
Sport-ES 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Vilavelhense Sport-ES

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vilavelhense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Sport-ES conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Vilavelhense scored in 77% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Vilavelhense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Vilavelhense VS Sport-ES
1.43 Goals Scored 1
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.5
71% Over 1.5 50%
43% Over 2.5 38%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Vilavelhense

(Home)
23 Jun
Vitoria ES
1 : 0
Vilavelhense
17 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 2
Vitoria ES
06 Jun
Vilavelhense
2 : 0
Audax Sao Mateus
03 Jun
Vilavelhense
1 : 0
Vitoria ES
28 May
Rio Branco ES
1 : 1
Vilavelhense
Page 1 of 6

Sport-ES

(Away)
29 Aug
Sport-ES
0 : 1
Estrela do Norte
22 Aug
Rive
2 : 0
Sport-ES
19 Aug
Tupy
1 : 0
Sport-ES
16 Aug
Sport-ES
4 : 1
Pinheiros
02 Aug
Estrela do Norte
2 : 0
Sport-ES
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Porto Vitoria 7 5 1 1 14:5 16
2 Vitoria ES 7 4 1 2 16:8 13
3 Vilavelhense 7 4 1 2 10:8 13
4 Rio Branco-VN 7 4 1 2 6:4 13
5 Rio Branco ES 7 3 2 2 11:7 11
6 Sport-ES 7 2 0 5 3:13 6
7 Serra 7 1 1 5 6:10 4
8 Audax Sao Mateus 7 1 1 5 2:13 4
Promotion - Copa Espirito Santo (Play Offs)