Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Villa vs Kampala City

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 FUFA Kadiba Stadium, Kampala
Our Tip

Match Events

57' Event
Mubiru H.

AI Match Summary

Villa in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Villa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Villa
15%
Draws
39%
Kampala City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Villa have won more games recently than Kampala City.
  • Win probability leans Villa's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Villa Clean Sheet 68%
Kampala City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villa Kampala City
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 21 19
Draws 6 3
Losses 5 8
Goals Scored 1.56 1.67
Goals Conceded 0.5 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Premier League
Villa vs Kampala City
1:0
Oct 4, 2025 Premier League
Kampala City vs Villa
2:1
May 7, 2025 Premier League
Villa vs Kampala City
2:2
Dec 20, 2024 Premier League
Kampala City vs Villa
1:1
May 1, 2024 Premier League
Kampala City vs Villa
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Mubiru H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Kampala City Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villa 51 / 100
Kampala City 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villa Kampala City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Villa scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

Kampala City has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Villa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Villa VS Kampala City
1.88 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Villa

(Home)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
16 May
Villa
1 : 0
Uganda Revenue
13 May
Mbarara City
1 : 3
Villa
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Kampala City

(Away)
22 Aug
Leopards
1 : 0
Kampala City
23 May
Kampala City
4 : 1
Mbarara City
19 May
Uganda Revenue
0 : 0
Kampala City
13 May
UPDF FC
1 : 2
Kampala City
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)