Sport Picks
Villanovense vs CD Diocesano
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 
Match Events
11'
11'
Castro J.
26'
26'
Varona J.
Own Goal
38'
38'
Nagera A.
AI Match Summary
Villanovense in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Villanovense.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
30%
20%
50%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CD Diocesano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
30%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Villanovense lately — more wins on the board than CD Diocesano.
- Win probability leans Villanovense's way, sitting at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 68%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Villanovense | CD Diocesano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.3 | 0.94 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 8, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs CD Diocesano
5:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Villanovense
0:0
Feb 26, 2023 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
Villanovense vs CD Diocesano
0:0
Oct 8, 2022 Segunda RFEF - Group 5
CD Diocesano vs Villanovense
0:0
May 17, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs CD Diocesano
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Villanovense Compare
Top Goalscorer Castro J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Pedregal A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
CD Diocesano Compare
Top Goalscorer Nagera A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Villanovense 77 / 100
CD Diocesano 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Villanovense CD Diocesano
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Villanovense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Villanovense found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).
CD Diocesano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 31 matches.
Games between these two average 1.20 goals.
Villanovense has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Villanovense VS CD Diocesano
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Villanovense
(Home) 20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1 Villanovense
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1 Villanovense
29 Jul
Villanovense
0 : 2 Cacereno
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Villanovense
0 : 1 AD Llerenense
29 Jul
Villanovense
0 : 2 Cacereno
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1 Jaraiz
26 Apr
Villanovense
2 : 0 Jerez CF
19 Apr
Villanovense
3 : 2 Cabeza del Buey
Page 1 of 3
CD Diocesano
(Away) 10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
26 Apr
CD Diocesano
0 : 0 Santa Amalia
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
12 Apr
CD Diocesano
2 : 1 Gevora
Page 1 of 7
03 May
Don Benito
8 : 1 CD Diocesano
19 Apr
CD Azuaga
2 : 0 CD Diocesano
05 Apr
CD Calamonte
1 : 1 CD Diocesano
02 Apr
Pueblonuevo
2 : 1 CD Diocesano
22 Mar
Jaraiz
3 : 0 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Don Benito | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 70:22 | 71 |
| 2 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 64:27 | 71 |
| 3 | Moralo | 34 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 54:32 | 62 |
| 4 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:31 | 62 |
| 5 | Jaraiz | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 53:33 | 59 |
| 6 | Cabeza del Buey | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 45:29 | 57 |
| 7 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 45:40 | 55 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 45:36 | 53 |
| 9 | Montijo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 43:42 | 46 |
| 10 | Jerez CF | 34 | 8 | 17 | 9 | 56:51 | 41 |
| 11 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 35:44 | 41 |
| 12 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 35:48 | 38 |
| 13 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 30:52 | 34 |
| 14 | Gevora | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 32:53 | 33 |
| 15 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 29:55 | 33 |
| 16 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 33:63 | 30 |
| 17 | Montehermoso | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 24:66 | 23 |
| 18 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 25:47 | 22 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
