Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Villanovense vs Montehermoso

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Almagro J.
14' Event
Almagro J.
38' Event
Diaz D.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 game between Villanovense and Montehermoso finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Villanovense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Villanovense
15%
Draws
12%
Montehermoso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Villanovense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Villanovense taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Villanovense Clean Sheet 20%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Villanovense Montehermoso
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 6 7
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.25 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.18 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Villanovense
0:3
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Villanovense vs Montehermoso
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Villanovense Compare

Top Goalscorer Almagro J.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Diaz D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.73
Avg xA / game 1.13

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Garrido D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villanovense 85 / 100
Montehermoso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Villanovense Montehermoso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Villanovense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montehermoso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Villanovense found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (28 games).

Difficult form: Montehermoso registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Villanovense VS Montehermoso
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Villanovense

(Home)
06 Sept
Moralo
2 : 1
Villanovense
29 Jul
Villanovense
0 : 2
Cacereno
10 May
Villanovense
0 : 1
Jaraiz
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Villanovense
2 : 0
Jerez CF
Page 1 of 6

Montehermoso

(Away)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)