Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Illescas

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Villarrobledo play Illescas in the Tercera RFEF - Group 18. It looks like a close match. Recently, Villarrobledo averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Illescas averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Villarrobledo won 1, Illescas won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 3, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Villarrobledo and 0.76 for Illescas. This points to a Villarrobledo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%

Villarrobledo

35%

Draws

27%

Illescas

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Villarrobledo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Villarrobledo picked up more points recently compared to Illescas.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 0.76 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 49%

Over 2.5 Goals 29%

Over 3.5 Goals 17%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%

Villarrobledo Clean Sheet 27%

Illescas Clean Sheet 16%

First Half Goal 44%

Second Half Goal 47%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Villarrobledo	Illescas
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	7
Draws	11	10
Losses	9	13
Goals Scored	0.97	0.63
Goals Conceded	1.03	1.03
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrobledo vs Illescas

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 0 - 1

0:0

Dec 21, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Illescas vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 52% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

0:0

Mar 19, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Villarrobledo vs Illescas

Possession: 41% - 52% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Nov 19, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Illescas vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 59% - 41% Cards: 1 - 3

2:0

May 8, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 18

Illescas vs Villarrobledo

Possession: 50% - 58% Cards: 1 - 2

0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Villarrobledo 40 / 100

Illescas 28 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Villarrobledo Illescas

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villarrobledo or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26.5%

3.33

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +26.1%

4.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Villarrobledo attacking → ← attacking Illescas

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Villarrobledo scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Illescas let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 0.60 goals.

Villarrobledo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Illescas lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 31

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Puertollano C.F.	34	22	8	4	54:21	74
2	CD Tarancon	34	22	7	5	62:25	73
3	Toledo	34	19	11	4	55:17	68
4	Albacete B	34	17	13	4	49:17	64
5	Manchego Ciudad Real	34	18	7	9	52:29	61
6	Villarrubia	34	15	8	11	42:35	53
7	Villacanas	34	12	12	10	29:26	48
8	San Clemente	34	12	11	11	36:44	47
9	CD Guadalajara B	34	11	10	13	30:37	43
10	Villarrobledo	34	10	13	11	30:36	43
11	Huracan de Balazote	34	12	5	17	33:45	41
12	Illescas	34	8	13	13	21:32	37
13	Marchamalo	34	10	7	17	38:47	37
14	La Solana	34	8	11	15	26:38	35
15	Azuqueca	34	7	13	14	34:39	34
16	CD Pedroneras	34	7	12	15	28:43	33
17	Sonseca	34	5	7	22	28:69	22
18	Cazalegas	34	4	6	24	17:64	18