Sport Picks
Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese
Italy
Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana 
Match Events
1'
1'
Carretta M.
(Penalty)
39'
39'
Foggia C.
54'
54'
Matarrese R.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
46%
20%
34%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Virtus Francavilla
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
46%
/ Medium Confidence
- Sarnese haven't matched Virtus Francavilla's recent run of results.
- Model gives Virtus Francavilla a 46% chance of winning this.
- Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Virtus Francavilla Clean Sheet 68%
Sarnese Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Virtus Francavilla | Sarnese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 15 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 12 |
| Losses | 7 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.37 | 1.6 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Virtus Francavilla vs Sarnese
2:2
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Sarnese vs Virtus Francavilla
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Virtus Francavilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Bolognese S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Sarnese Compare
Top Goalscorer Foggia C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Matarrese R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Virtus Francavilla 50 / 100
Sarnese 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Virtus Francavilla Sarnese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Virtus Francavilla Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Virtus Francavilla stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Virtus Francavilla found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Sarnese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Virtus Francavilla VS Sarnese
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Virtus Francavilla
(Home) 27 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 San Felice Gladiator
20 Sept
Martina Calcio
1 : 2 Virtus Francavilla
16 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 Brindisi
13 Sept
Melfi
0 : 1 Virtus Francavilla
06 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 1 Palmese 1914
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 San Felice Gladiator
16 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 1 Brindisi
06 Sept
Virtus Francavilla
3 : 1 Palmese 1914
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
19 Apr
Virtus Francavilla
0 : 3 Francavilla
Page 1 of 4
Sarnese
(Away) 27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2 Sarnese
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1 Gelbison
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
06 Sept
Sarnese
2 : 1 Budoni Calcio
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Ossese
2 : 2 Sarnese
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1 Sarnese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1 Sarnese
30 Jul
Cavese
1 : 0 Sarnese
03 May
Virtus Francavilla
2 : 2 Sarnese
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barletta | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 54:20 | 70 |
| 2 | Martina Calcio | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 47:30 | 62 |
| 3 | Citta di Fasano | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51:35 | 62 |
| 4 | Paganese | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 36:32 | 58 |
| 5 | A.C.D. Nardo | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 40:27 | 55 |
| 6 | Gravina | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 50:40 | 55 |
| 7 | Afragolese | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45:46 | 49 |
| 8 | Fidelis Andria | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 35:28 | 48 |
| 9 | Virtus Francavilla | 34 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 45:40 | 48 |
| 10 | Real Normanna | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 27:26 | 43 |
| 11 | Francavilla | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 39:38 | 43 |
| 12 | Manfredonia | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 34:39 | 43 |
| 13 | Sarnese | 34 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 51:49 | 41 |
| 14 | SS Nola 1925 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 42:50 | 41 |
| 15 | Heraclea | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 31:39 | 38 |
| 16 | Pompei | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 26:38 | 34 |
| 17 | Ferrandina | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 21:43 | 30 |
| 18 | Acerrana | 34 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 20:74 | 14 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)
